IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v26y2012i3p609-621.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial Analysis of Monthly and Annual Precipitation Trends in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Hüseyin Yavuz
  • Saffet Erdoğan

Abstract

Global climate change could have important effects on various environmental variables in many countries around the world. Changes in precipitation regime directly affect water resources management. So that, it is important to analyze the changes in the spatial and temporal rainfall pattern in order to improve water resources management policies. For this reason, non-parametric Mann-Kendall rank correlation test is used in order to examine the existence of trends in annual and monthly rainfall distribution. To understand the regional differences of precipitation in Turkey, the detected trends are spatially interpolated using geostatistical techniques in a GIS environment. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate three interpolation methods, concerning their suitability for spatial prediction of temporal trends of Turkey’s monthly and annual rainfall data. The study used a dense and homogeneous monthly precipitation database comprising 120 rain-gauge stations over a 32 years testing period of 1975–2009. The results conclusively show that significant positive trends are both infrequent and found only in outlying stations during March, April and October. In order to estimate and characterize the magnitude of observed changes at unmeasured locations, Ordinary Kriging, Inverse Distance Weighted and Completely Regularized Spline interpolation methods were employed and compared. A comparative analysis of interpolation techniques shows that Ordinary Kriging with having RMSE of 0.148 is the best choice. This is followed by Inverse Distance Weighted (RMSE 0.151), and Splines (RMSE 0.152). Cross validation of the results shows the largest over prediction at Kars rainfall station and largest under prediction at Burdur station. Upon for the examination of the cross-validation and spatial error clustering results, the Ordinary Kriging method was concluded to be the best algorithm in the interpolation process. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Hüseyin Yavuz & Saffet Erdoğan, 2012. "Spatial Analysis of Monthly and Annual Precipitation Trends in Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(3), pages 609-621, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:3:p:609-621
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9935-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-011-9935-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-011-9935-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Mardikis & D. Kalivas & V. Kollias, 2005. "Comparison of Interpolation Methods for the Prediction of Reference Evapotranspiration—An Application in Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(3), pages 251-278, June.
    2. Nazzareno Diodato & Gianni Tartari & Gianni Bellocchi, 2010. "Geospatial Rainfall Modelling at Eastern Nepalese Highland from Ground Environmental Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2703-2720, September.
    3. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Annisa Nur Falah & Budi Nurani Ruchjana & Atje Setiawan Abdullah & Juli Rejito, 2023. "The Hybrid Modeling of Spatial Autoregressive Exogenous Using Casetti’s Model Approach for the Prediction of Rainfall," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Jin Huang & Shanlei Sun & Yan Xue & Jinjian Li & Jinchi Zhang, 2014. "Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation and Dryness/Wetness During 1961–2008 in Sichuan Province, West China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1655-1670, April.
    3. J. Vicente-Guillén & E. Ayuga-Telléz & D. Otero & J. Chávez & F. Ayuga & A. García, 2012. "Performance of a Monthly Streamflow Prediction Model for Ungauged Watersheds in Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(13), pages 3767-3784, October.
    4. İsmail Dabanlı & Zekai Şen & Mehmet Öner Yeleğen & Eyüp Şişman & Bülent Selek & Yavuz Selim Güçlü, 2016. "Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5193-5203, November.
    5. Carlos E. Melo & Oscar O. Melo & Jorge Mateu, 2018. "A distance-based model for spatial prediction using radial basis functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 102(2), pages 263-288, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Kamali & Rouzbeh Nazari & Alireza Faridhosseini & Hossein Ansari & Saeid Eslamian, 2015. "The Determination of Reference Evapotranspiration for Spatial Distribution Mapping Using Geostatistics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(11), pages 3929-3940, September.
    2. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    3. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    4. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    5. Wan-Jiun Chen, 2017. "Is the Green Solow Model Valid for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions in the European Union?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 23-45, May.
    6. Myoung-Jin Um & Jun-Haeng Heo & Momcilo Markus & Donald J. Wuebbles, 2018. "Performance Evaluation of four Statistical Tests for Trend and Non-stationarity and Assessment of Observed and Projected Annual Maximum Precipitation Series in Major United States Cities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 913-933, February.
    7. Milan Stojković & Srđan Kostić & Stevan Prohaska & Jasna Plavšić & Vesna Tripković, 2017. "A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1089-1103, March.
    8. Haiming Yan & Jinyan Zhan & Bing Liu & Yongwei Yuan, 2014. "Model Estimation of Water Use Efficiency for Soil Conservation in the Lower Heihe River Basin, Northwest China during 2000–2008," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-17, September.
    9. Anas Mahmood Al-Juboori, 2019. "Generating Monthly Stream Flow Using Nearest River Data: Assessing Different Trees Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(9), pages 3257-3270, July.
    10. Farahani Mohd Saimi & Firdaus Mohamad Hamzah & Mohd Ekhwan Toriman & Othman Jaafar & Hazrina Tajudin, 2020. "Trend and Linearity Analysis of Meteorological Parameters in Peninsular Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-19, November.
    11. Garcia-Prats, A. & Carricondo-Anton, J.M. & Jiménez-Bello, M.A. & Manzano Juárez, J. & López-Pérez, E. & Pulido-Velazquez, M., 2023. "Dynamic procedure for daily PM56 ETo mapping conducive to site-specific irrigation recommendations in areas covered by agricultural weather networks," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    12. Yiting Shao & Xiaohui Zhai & Xingmin Mu & Sen Zheng & Dandan Shen & Jinglin Qian, 2024. "An Attribution Analysis of Runoff Alterations in the Danjiang River Watershed for Sustainable Water Resource Management by Different Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-23, September.
    13. Mojtaba Shadmani & Safar Marofi & Majid Roknian, 2012. "Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 211-224, January.
    14. Gokmen Ceribasi & Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu & Andrzej Wałęga & Dariusz Młyński, 2022. "Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Energy Produced by Hydroelectric Power Plants (HEPPs) by Trend Analysis Method: A Case Study for Dogancay I–II HEPPs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    15. Guangju Zhao & Georg Hörmann & Nicola Fohrer & Zengxin Zhang & Jianqing Zhai, 2010. "Streamflow Trends and Climate Variability Impacts in Poyang Lake Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(4), pages 689-706, March.
    16. Jinfei Hu & Guangju Zhao & Pengfei Li & Xingmin Mu, 2022. "Variations of pan evaporation and its attribution from 1961 to 2015 on the Loess Plateau, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1199-1217, March.
    17. Allen, Richard G. & Dhungel, Ramesh & Dhungana, Bibha & Huntington, Justin & Kilic, Ayse & Morton, Charles, 2021. "Conditioning point and gridded weather data under aridity conditions for calculation of reference evapotranspiration," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    18. Mohammed Achite & Gokmen Ceribasi & Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu & Andrzej Wałęga & Tommaso Caloiero, 2021. "The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-17, November.
    19. Varsha Pandey & Prashant K Srivastava & Sudhir K Singh & George P. Petropoulos & Rajesh Kumar Mall, 2021. "Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.
    20. Lihua Xiong & Tao Du & Chong-Yu Xu & Shenglian Guo & Cong Jiang & Christopher Gippel, 2015. "Non-Stationary Annual Maximum Flood Frequency Analysis Using the Norming Constants Method to Consider Non-Stationarity in the Annual Daily Flow Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3615-3633, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:3:p:609-621. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.