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A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Stojković

    (Institute for Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi”)

  • Srđan Kostić

    (Institute for Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi”)

  • Stevan Prohaska

    (Institute for Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi”)

  • Jasna Plavšić

    (University of Belgrade Faculty of Civil Engineering)

  • Vesna Tripković

    (Institute for Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi”)

Abstract

The authors propose a new approach for trend assessment that takes into account long-term periodicity of annual flows. In particular, analysis is performed of annual flows recorded at the locations of 30 operating and designed hydropower plants (HPPs) in Serbia, in order to assess the current and future water availability for hydropower generation. The composite annual trend is determined by sliding a fixed time window of 30 years along the observed time series with a one-year time step. Such a linear moving window (LMW) approach enables the identification of the flow trend as a median of all values for each time step. Significant trend harmonics are determined using discrete spectral analysis. The results show an alternation of upward and downward trend phases of different durations, namely: 67–87, 33–43 and 21–29 years. On the other hand, the results of the Mann-Kendall test indicate a monotonic downward trend at the studied sites in the Drina River Basin, while statistically insignificant trends are noted at other river basins. The Mann-Kendall test with the Theil-Sen estimator also implies a downward and statistically insignificant flow trend after the observed period, whereas the LMW approach indicates a probable trend increase at all the examined sites. The proposed approach can be used to predict annual flows in order to establish long-term water management plans at hydropower plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Stojković & Srđan Kostić & Stevan Prohaska & Jasna Plavšić & Vesna Tripković, 2017. "A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1089-1103, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1583-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    2. Yan-Fang Sang, 2013. "Improved Wavelet Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2807-2821, June.
    3. Kao, Shih-Chieh & Sale, Michael J. & Ashfaq, Moetasim & Uria Martinez, Rocio & Kaiser, Dale P. & Wei, Yaxing & Diffenbaugh, Noah S., 2015. "Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 239-250.
    4. Milan Stojković & Aleksandra Ilić & Stevan Prohaska & Jasna Plavšić, 2014. "Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4319-4335, September.
    5. Qiang Zhang & Ben-De Wang & Bin He & Yong Peng & Ming-Lei Ren, 2011. "Singular Spectrum Analysis and ARIMA Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(11), pages 2683-2703, September.
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    1. Kostić, Srđan & Stojković, Milan & Guranov, Iva & Vasović, Nebojša, 2019. "Revealing the background of groundwater level dynamics: Contributing factors, complex modeling and engineering applications," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 408-421.

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