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Policy Disciplining Effect of Capital Account Openness in India

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  • Lekshmi Nair

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Abstract

In this paper, the policy disciplining effect of capital account openness in India is examined by examining the impact of capital account openness on inflation and fiscal deficit. Multivariate modeling, which includes other relevant variables identified in the literature, is used for the analysis. Our results show capital account openness has a strong disciplining effect on inflation whereas it has no significant effect on fiscal deficit. In the case of fiscal deficit, trade openness and number of government changes only are the significant determinants. The moves of the RBI tend to reaffirm the disciplinary effect of capital account openness. In the meantime, since the mid 1990s, RBI kept a strict vigil over inflation and inflation expectations in the context of a more open capital account. One major reason for the problem concerning inflation expectation by RBI is the threat of capital outflow in the face of loose monetary policy and high inflation. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Lekshmi Nair, 2012. "Policy Disciplining Effect of Capital Account Openness in India," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(1), pages 43-57, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:trstrv:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:43-57 DOI: 10.1007/s11300-012-0229-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2008. "Does capital account openness lower inflation?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 471-487.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. "Foreign Resource Inflows, Saving, and Growth," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233618, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 9-30, Fall.
    4. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    5. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, January.
    6. Gruben, William C. & McLeod, Darryl, 2001. "Capital account liberalization and disinflation in the 1990s," Working Papers 0104, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Shang-Jin Wei & Irina Tytell, 2004. "Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 04/84, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Woochan Kim, 2003. "Does Capital Account Liberalization Discipline Budget Deficit?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 830-844, November.
    9. repec:cup:apsrev:v:91:y:1997:i:03:p:531-551_21 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Edin, Per-Anders & Ohlsson, Henry, 1991. "Political determinants of budget deficits: Coalition effects versus minority effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1597-1603, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital account openness; Disciplining effect; Inflation; Fiscal deficit; E62; E63; F41;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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