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Discrete choice under risk and model uncertainty

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  • Wei Ma

    (Shandong University)

Abstract

This paper studies the aggregation of discrete choice models under risk. We propose a unanimity condition: if every model predicts one item is chosen more frequently from a menu than another, so should the aggregate model. We show that this condition entails the aggregate model must be a mixture of the individual models. This result provides a behavioral characterization of the Bayesian model averaging method for discrete choice models under risk. As an application of the result, we examine the aggregation of a continuum of probability measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Ma, 2025. "Discrete choice under risk and model uncertainty," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 65(2), pages 291-307, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:65:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s00355-024-01573-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s00355-024-01573-8
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