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„Die Kunst, die Zukunft zu erfinden“ — Theoretische Erkenntnisse und empirische Befunde zum Einsatz des Corporate Foresight in deutschen Großunternehmen

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Gruber

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Claudia Venter

    (BMW Group / EV-43)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Studien zur Zukunftsforschung von Unternehmen befassen sich bislang nur einseitig mit Prognoseverfahren, obgleich für die Durchführung der Zukunftsforschung weitere managementspezifische Fragestellungen von Bedeutung sind. Beklagt wird von der Praxis u.a. ein Mangel an Wissen über eine zweckmäßige organisatorische Verankerung der Zukunftsforschung, deren prozessuale Ausgestaltung, den zu wählenden Prognosehorizont und die inhaltliche Ausrichtung der Analysen. Dieser Beitrag wendet sich den offenen Fragen zu und gewährt auf Basis einer qualitativen Untersuchung bei deutschen Großunternehmen erste empirische Einblicke in die weitgehend intransparente Praxis der Zukunftsforschung. Dabei wird der im angloamerikanischen Raum gebräuchliche Terminus „Corporate Foresight“ verwendet, um bereits begrifflich den über die Prognoseverfahren hinausgehenden Anspruch zu verdeutlichen. Die Befunde werden unter Einbezug aktueller Erkenntnisse aus der Theorie zum strategischen Management und zum Innovationsmanagement diskutiert. Wie die Ergebnisse zu erkennen geben, schöpfen die Unternehmen den Gestaltungsspielraum und das Potenzial der Zukunftsforschung noch nicht aus. Drei typische Muster des Corporate Foresight deuten sich an. Empfehlungen für die Ausgestaltung des Corporate Foresight runden den Beitrag ab.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gruber & Claudia Venter, 2006. "„Die Kunst, die Zukunft zu erfinden“ — Theoretische Erkenntnisse und empirische Befunde zum Einsatz des Corporate Foresight in deutschen Großunternehmen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 58(7), pages 958-984, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:58:y:2006:i:7:d:10.1007_bf03371688
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03371688
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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