IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v130y2025i8d10.1007_s11192-025-05404-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Popper’s probability calculus and the decline of scientific disruptiveness

Author

Listed:
  • Lutz Bornmann

    (Administrative Headquarters of the Max Planck Society)

  • Russell J. Funk

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

Research suggests that the disruptiveness of scientific research has declined over recent decades. Several explanations have been published for the decrease. In this paper, we add another explanation based on a probability calculus for explaining progress in science from the philosopher of science Karl Popper.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Bornmann & Russell J. Funk, 2025. "Popper’s probability calculus and the decline of scientific disruptiveness," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 130(8), pages 4801-4807, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:130:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s11192-025-05404-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-025-05404-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-025-05404-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-025-05404-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    3. Lingfei Wu & Dashun Wang & James A. Evans, 2019. "Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7744), pages 378-382, February.
    4. Christian Leibel & Lutz Bornmann, 2024. "What do we know about the disruption index in scientometrics? An overview of the literature," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(1), pages 601-639, January.
    5. Benjamin F. Jones, 2010. "Age and Great Invention," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Arnoud Boot & Vladimir Vladimirov, 2025. "Disclosure, Patenting, and Trade Secrecy," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 63(1), pages 5-56, March.
    7. Samuel Arbesman, 2011. "Quantifying the ease of scientific discovery," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 86(2), pages 245-250, February.
    8. Thomas Astebro & Serguey Braguinsky & Yuheng Ding, 2020. "Declining Business Dynamism among Our Best Opportunities: The Role of the Burden of Knowledge," NBER Working Papers 27787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Naudé, Wim, 2024. "Is the Scholarly Field of Entrepreneurship at Its End?," IZA Discussion Papers 16916, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Macher, Jeffrey T. & Rutzer, Christian & Weder, Rolf, 2024. "Is there a secular decline in disruptive patents? Correcting for measurement bias," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    11. Michael Park & Erin Leahey & Russell J. Funk, 2023. "Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time," Nature, Nature, vol. 613(7942), pages 138-144, January.
    12. Donald E. Bowen III & Laurent Frésard & Gerard Hoberg, 2019. "Technological Disruptiveness and the Evolution of IPOs and Sell-Outs," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-22, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2019.
    13. Ajay Agrawal & Avi Goldfarb & Florenta Teodoridis, 2016. "Understanding the Changing Structure of Scientific Inquiry," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 100-128, January.
    14. Benjamin F. Jones, 2009. "The Burden of Knowledge and the "Death of the Renaissance Man": Is Innovation Getting Harder?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 283-317.
    15. Pandelis Mitsis, 2022. "The Nobel Prize time gap," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Erin Leahey & Jina Lee & Russell J. Funk, 2023. "What Types of Novelty Are Most Disruptive?," American Sociological Review, , vol. 88(3), pages 562-597, June.
    17. Pierre Azoulay & Christian Fons-Rosen & Joshua S. Graff Zivin, 2019. "Does Science Advance One Funeral at a Time?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2889-2920, August.
    18. Yiling Lin & Carl Benedikt Frey & Lingfei Wu, 2022. "Remote Collaboration Fuses Fewer Breakthrough Ideas," Papers 2206.01878, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    19. Johannes Hoelzemann & Gustavo Manso & Abhishek Nagaraj & Matteo Tranchero, 2024. "The Streetlight Effect in Data-Driven Exploration," NBER Working Papers 32401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Yiling Lin & Carl Benedikt Frey & Lingfei Wu, 2023. "Remote collaboration fuses fewer breakthrough ideas," Nature, Nature, vol. 623(7989), pages 987-991, November.
    21. Lusher, Lester & Yang, Wenni & Carrell, Scott E., 2023. "Congestion on the information superhighway: Inefficiencies in economics working papers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    22. Dongqing Lyu & Kaile Gong & Xuanmin Ruan & Ying Cheng & Jiang Li, 2021. "Does research collaboration influence the “disruption” of articles? Evidence from neurosciences," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 287-303, January.
    23. Boeing, Philipp & Hünermund, Paul, 2020. "A global decline in research productivity? Evidence from China and Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    24. Russell J. Funk & Jason Owen-Smith, 2017. "A Dynamic Network Measure of Technological Change," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 791-817, March.
    25. Jay Bhattacharya & Mikko Packalen, 2020. "Stagnation and Scientific Incentives," NBER Working Papers 26752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. An Zeng & Ying Fan & Zengru Di & Yougui Wang & Shlomo Havlin, 2021. "Fresh teams are associated with original and multidisciplinary research," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 1314-1322, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seungmin Lee & Jeong-Dong Lee & Youwei He, 2025. "Exaptation: unveiling the potential for technological innovation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 130(7), pages 3483-3503, July.
    2. Yang, Alex J., 2024. "On the temporal diversity of knowledge in science," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4).
    3. Hongkan Chen & Lutz Bornmann & Yi Bu, 2025. "Hot streaks and disruptiveness in the career of scientists: is there an association between both phenomena?," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Petersen, Alexander Michael & Arroyave, Felber J. & Pammolli, Fabio, 2025. "The disruption index suffers from citation inflation: Re-analysis of temporal CD trend and relationship with team size reveal discrepancies," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1).
    5. Yang, Wenlong & Wang, Yang, 2024. "Exploring team creativity: The nexus between freshness and experience," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4).
    6. Christian Leibel & Lutz Bornmann, 2024. "Specification uncertainty: what the disruption index tells us about the (hidden) multiverse of bibliometric indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(12), pages 7971-7979, December.
    7. Wang, Jieshu & Lobo, José, 2024. "Extensive growth of inventions: Evidence from U.S. patenting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Ziyan Zhang & Junyan Zhang & Pushi Wang, 2024. "Measurement of disruptive innovation and its validity based on improved disruption index," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(11), pages 6477-6531, November.
    9. Macher, Jeffrey T. & Rutzer, Christian & Weder, Rolf, 2024. "Is there a secular decline in disruptive patents? Correcting for measurement bias," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    10. Michael Park & Erin Leahey & Russell Funk, 2021. "The decline of disruptive science and technology," Papers 2106.11184, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    11. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2021. "The Rise and Fall of German Innovation," IZA Discussion Papers 14154, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Mingze Zhang & Lili Wang & Zexia Li, 2025. "The impact of team compositions on disruptive and novel research in large-scale research infrastructures," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 130(5), pages 2987-3011, May.
    13. Ao, Weiyi & Lyu, Dongqing & Ruan, Xuanmin & Li, Jiang & Cheng, Ying, 2023. "Scientific creativity patterns in scholars’ academic careers: Evidence from PubMed," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4).
    14. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2022. "The Ossified Economy: The Case of Germany, 1870-2020," IZA Discussion Papers 15607, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Wu, Lingfei & Kittur, Aniket & Youn, Hyejin & Milojević, Staša & Leahey, Erin & Fiore, Stephen M. & Ahn, Yong-Yeol, 2022. "Metrics and mechanisms: Measuring the unmeasurable in the science of science," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    16. Sam Arts & Nicola Melluso & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2023. "Beyond Citations: Measuring Novel Scientific Ideas and their Impact in Publication Text," Papers 2309.16437, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    17. Yue Wang & Ning Li & Bin Zhang & Qian Huang & Jian Wu & Yang Wang, 2023. "The effect of structural holes on producing novel and disruptive research in physics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(3), pages 1801-1823, March.
    18. Zhang, Jia & Wang, Jian & Winnink, Jos & Jong, Simcha, 2025. "Collaboration networks and radical innovation: Two faces of tie strength and structural holes," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1).
    19. Li, Meiling & Wang, Yang & Du, Haifeng & Bai, Aruhan, 2024. "Motivating innovation: The impact of prestigious talent funding on junior scientists," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(9).
    20. Xin Liu & Yi Bu & Ming Li & Jiang Li, 2024. "Monodisciplinary collaboration disrupts science more than multidisciplinary collaboration," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 75(1), pages 59-78, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:130:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s11192-025-05404-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.