IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/32401.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Streetlight Effect in Data-Driven Exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Hoelzemann
  • Gustavo Manso
  • Abhishek Nagaraj
  • Matteo Tranchero

Abstract

We examine innovative contexts like scientific research or technical R&D where agents must search across many potential projects of varying and uncertain returns. Is it better to possess incomplete but accurate data on the value of some projects, or might there be cases where it is better to explore on a blank slate? While more data usually improves welfare, we present a theoretical framework to understand how it can unexpectedly decrease it. In our model of the streetlight effect, we predict that when data shines a light on attractive but not optimal projects, it can severely narrow the breadth of exploration and lower individual and group payoffs. We test our predictions in an online lab experiment and show that the availability of data on the true value of one project can lower individual payoffs by 17% and reduce the likelihood of discovering the optimal outcome by 54% compared to cases where no data is provided. Suggestive empirical evidence from genetics research illustrates our framework in a real-world setting: data on moderately promising genetic targets delays valuable discoveries by 1.6 years on average. Our paper provides the first systematic examination of the streetlight effect, outlining the conditions under which data leads agents to look under the lamppost rather than engage in socially beneficial exploration.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Hoelzemann & Gustavo Manso & Abhishek Nagaraj & Matteo Tranchero, 2024. "The Streetlight Effect in Data-Driven Exploration," NBER Working Papers 32401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32401
    Note: PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w32401.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.