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Research assessment using early citation information

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan B. Bruns

    (University of Kassel)

  • David I. Stern

    (The Australian National University)

Abstract

Peer-review based research assessment, as implemented in Australia, the United Kingdom, and some other countries, is a very costly exercise. We show that university rankings in economics based on long-run citation counts can be easily predicted using early citations. This would allow a research assessment to predict the relative long-run impact of articles published by a university immediately at the end of the evaluation period. We compare these citation-based university rankings with the rankings of the 2010 Excellence in Research assessment in Australia and the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise in the United Kingdom. Rank correlations are quite strong, but there are some differences between rankings. However, if assessors are willing to consider citation analysis to assess some disciplines, as is the case for the natural sciences and psychology in Australia, it seems reasonable to consider also including economics in that set.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan B. Bruns & David I. Stern, 2016. "Research assessment using early citation information," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(2), pages 917-935, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:108:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-016-1979-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-016-1979-1
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. My Submission to Stern Review of the REF
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2016-03-03 09:34:00
    2. Mid-Year Update
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2016-06-01 08:40:00
    3. Annual Review 2016
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2016-12-26 17:08:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Anderson & John Tressler, 2018. "The Impact of Citation Timing: A Framework and Examples," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 9(2).
    2. David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2017. "Researcher rank stability across alternative output measurement schemes in the context of a time limited research evaluation: the New Zealand case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(45), pages 4542-4553, September.
    3. John Gibson & David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2017. "Citations Or Journal Quality: Which Is Rewarded More In The Academic Labor Market?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1945-1965, October.
    4. Andrea Fronzetti Colladon & Ciriaco Andrea D’Angelo & Peter A. Gloor, 2020. "Predicting the future success of scientific publications through social network and semantic analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(1), pages 357-377, July.
    5. Syed Hasan & Robert Breunig, 2021. "Article length and citation outcomes," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(9), pages 7583-7608, September.
    6. David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2016. "Citation-Capture Rates for Economics Journals: Do they Differ from Other Disciplines and Does it Matter?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(1), pages 73-85, March.
    7. Vasilios D. Kosteas, 2018. "Predicting long-run citation counts for articles in top economics journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(3), pages 1395-1412, June.
    8. Basso, Antonella & di Tollo, Giacomo, 2022. "Prediction of UK research excellence framework assessment by the departmental h-index," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(3), pages 1036-1049.
    9. Thelwall, Mike & Nevill, Tamara, 2018. "Could scientists use Altmetric.com scores to predict longer term citation counts?," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 237-248.
    10. Kousha, Kayvan & Thelwall, Mike & Abdoli, Mahshid, 2018. "Can Microsoft Academic assess the early citation impact of in-press articles? A multi-discipline exploratory analysis," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 287-298.
    11. David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2015. "Are Researcher Rankings Stable Across Alternative Output Measurement Schemes in the Context of a Time Limited Research Evaluation? The New Zealand Case," Working Papers in Economics 15/10, University of Waikato.
    12. Abramo, Giovanni & D’Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea & Felici, Giovanni, 2019. "Predicting publication long-term impact through a combination of early citations and journal impact factor," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 32-49.
    13. Björn Dressel & David I. Stern, 2021. "Research at public policy schools in the Asia‐Pacific region ranked," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 151-166, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Citations; Research assessment; Bibliometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics
    • H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

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