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Predicting long-run citation counts for articles in top economics journals

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  • Vasilios D. Kosteas

    (Cleveland State University)

Abstract

We examine the relative strength of short-term citation counts, bibliometric measures such as journal impact factors, and journal rankings in terms of predicting long-run citations. Using a set of articles published in sixty of the highest reputation economics journals in 1994, we find that citations received over fairly short windows (between 1 and 2 years after publication) are much stronger predictors of long-run citation counts compared with journal impact factors or other journal rankings. Our results are robust to a series of robustness checks. These findings suggest department heads and tenure and promotion committees should place greater weight on short-term citations as opposed to article placement when making personnel decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasilios D. Kosteas, 2018. "Predicting long-run citation counts for articles in top economics journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(3), pages 1395-1412, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:115:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-018-2703-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-018-2703-0
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    Cited by:

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    3. Xie, Zheng, 2020. "Predicting publication productivity for researchers: A piecewise Poisson model," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3).
    4. Hu, Ya-Han & Tai, Chun-Tien & Liu, Kang Ernest & Cai, Cheng-Fang, 2020. "Identification of highly-cited papers using topic-model-based and bibliometric features: the consideration of keyword popularity," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1).
    5. Gerson Pech & Catarina Delgado, 2020. "Assessing the publication impact using citation data from both Scopus and WoS databases: an approach validated in 15 research fields," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(2), pages 909-924, November.
    6. Gerson Pech & Catarina Delgado, 2020. "Percentile and stochastic-based approach to the comparison of the number of citations of articles indexed in different bibliographic databases," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 123(1), pages 223-252, April.
    7. Wumei Du & Zheng Xie & Yiqin Lv, 2021. "Predicting publication productivity for authors: Shallow or deep architecture?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5855-5879, July.
    8. Wang, Xing & Zhang, Zhihui, 2020. "Improving the reliability of short-term citation impact indicators by taking into account the correlation between short- and long-term citation impact," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2).
    9. Xueying Liu & Haoran Zhu, 2023. "Linguistic positivity in soft and hard disciplines: temporal dynamics, disciplinary variation, and the relationship with research impact," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(5), pages 3107-3127, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Citation counts; Journal impact factor; Economics journals; Journal rankings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A19 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Other
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

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