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High-Ranked Social Science Journal Articles Can Be Identified from Early Citation Information

Author

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  • David I. Stern

    () (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

Abstract

Do citations accumulate too slowly in the social sciences to be used to assess the quality of recent articles? I investigate whether this is the case using citation data for all articles in economics and political science published in 2006 and indexed in the Web of Science. Surprisingly, citations in the first one to two years after publication are highly predictive for cumulative citations received over a longer period. Journal impact factors improve the correlation between the predicted and actual future ranks of journal articles when using citation data from 2006 alone but the effect declines sharply thereafter.

Suggested Citation

  • David I. Stern, 2014. "High-Ranked Social Science Journal Articles Can Be Identified from Early Citation Information," Crawford School Research Papers 1406, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:crwfrp:1406
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    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2456107
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. High-Ranked Social Science Journal Articles Can Be Identified from Early Citation Information
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2014-06-19 13:08:00
    2. Citation Data for Citation Prediction Paper Now Available
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2014-09-01 10:58:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2017. "Researcher rank stability across alternative output measurement schemes in the context of a time limited research evaluation: the New Zealand case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(45), pages 4542-4553, September.
    2. Stegehuis, Clara & Litvak, Nelly & Waltman, Ludo, 2015. "Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 642-657.
    3. Stephan B. Bruns & David I. Stern, 2016. "Research assessment using early citation information," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(2), pages 917-935, August.
    4. David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2016. "Citation-Capture Rates for Economics Journals: Do they Differ from Other Disciplines and Does it Matter?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(1), pages 73-85, March.
    5. Thelwall, Mike & Nevill, Tamara, 2018. "Could scientists use Altmetric.com scores to predict longer term citation counts?," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 237-248.
    6. David I. Stern, 2017. "Comment on Bornmann (2017): confidence intervals for journal impact factors," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(3), pages 1811-1813, December.
    7. Giovanni Abramo & Ciriaco Andrea D’Angelo, 2016. "Refrain from adopting the combination of citation and journal metrics to grade publications, as used in the Italian national research assessment exercise (VQR 2011–2014)," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(3), pages 2053-2065, December.
    8. Waltman, Ludo, 2016. "A review of the literature on citation impact indicators," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 365-391.
    9. Costanza, Robert & Howarth, Richard B. & Kubiszewski, Ida & Liu, Shuang & Ma, Chunbo & Plumecocq, Gaël & Stern, David I., 2016. "Influential publications in ecological economics revisited," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 68-76.
    10. Huang, Ding-wei, 2016. "Positive correlation between quality and quantity in academic journals," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 329-335.
    11. Abramo, Giovanni, 2018. "Revisiting the scientometric conceptualization of impact and its measurement," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 590-597.
    12. David Anderson & John Tressler, 2018. "The Impact of Citation Timing: A Framework and Examples," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 9(2).
    13. Schreiber, Michael, 2015. "Restricting the h-index to a publication and citation time window: A case study of a timed Hirsch index," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 150-155.
    14. Aderemi Oluyinka Adewumi & Peter Ayokunle Popoola, 2018. "A multi-objective particle swarm optimization for the submission decision process," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 9(1), pages 98-110, February.
    15. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:4:p:1945-1965 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Vasilios D. Kosteas, 2018. "Predicting long-run citation counts for articles in top economics journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(3), pages 1395-1412, June.
    17. Costanza, Robert & Howarth, Richard B. & Kubiszewski, Ida & Liu, Shuang & Ma, Chunbo & Plumecocq, Gaël & Stern, David I., 2016. "Influential publications in ecological economics revisited," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 68-76.
    18. Mike Thelwall, 2018. "Early Mendeley readers correlate with later citation counts," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(3), pages 1231-1240, June.
    19. David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2015. "Are Researcher Rankings Stable Across Alternative Output Measurement Schemes in the Context of a Time Limited Research Evaluation? The New Zealand Case," Working Papers in Economics 15/10, University of Waikato.
    20. Giovanni Abramo, 2017. "Bibliometric Evaluation of Research Performance: Where Do We Stand?," Educational Studies, Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 112-127.
    21. Abramo, Giovanni & D’Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea & Felici, Giovanni, 2019. "Predicting publication long-term impact through a combination of early citations and journal impact factor," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 32-49.
    22. Kosteas, Vasilios D., 2015. "Journal impact factors and month of publication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 77-79.
    23. John Gibson & David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2017. "Citations Or Journal Quality: Which Is Rewarded More In The Academic Labor Market?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1945-1965, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics

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