IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/infome/v9y2015i3p642-657.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

Author

Listed:
  • Stegehuis, Clara
  • Litvak, Nelly
  • Waltman, Ludo

Abstract

A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: the impact factor of the journal in which a publication has appeared and the number of citations a publication has received one year after its appearance. The proposed model is based on quantile regression. We employ the model to predict the future number of citations of a large set of publications in the field of physics. Our analysis shows that both predictors (i.e., impact factor and early citations) contribute to the accurate prediction of long-term citation impact. We also analytically study the behavior of the quantile regression coefficients for high quantiles of the distribution of citations. This is done by linking the quantile regression approach to a quantile estimation technique from extreme value theory. Our work provides insight into the influence of the impact factor and early citations on the long-term citation impact of a publication, and it takes a step toward a methodology that can be used to assess research institutions based on their most recently published work.

Suggested Citation

  • Stegehuis, Clara & Litvak, Nelly & Waltman, Ludo, 2015. "Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 642-657.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:infome:v:9:y:2015:i:3:p:642-657
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joi.2015.06.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1751157715300080
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Natsuo Onodera & Fuyuki Yoshikane, 2015. "Factors affecting citation rates of research articles," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 66(4), pages 739-764, April.
    2. Pedro Albarrán & Juan A. Crespo & Ignacio Ortuño & Javier Ruiz-Castillo, 2011. "The skewness of science in 219 sub-fields and a number of aggregates," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 88(2), pages 385-397, August.
    3. Cirillo, Pasquale, 2013. "Are your data really Pareto distributed?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5947-5962.
    4. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    5. Bornmann, Lutz, 2013. "The problem of citation impact assessments for recent publication years in institutional evaluations," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 722-729.
    6. Mingers, John & Xu, Fang, 2010. "The drivers of citations in management science journals," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 422-430, September.
    7. Bornmann, Lutz & Leydesdorff, Loet & Wang, Jian, 2013. "Which percentile-based approach should be preferred for calculating normalized citation impact values? An empirical comparison of five approaches including a newly developed citation-rank approach (P1," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 933-944.
    8. S. Redner, 1998. "How popular is your paper? An empirical study of the citation distribution," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 131-134, July.
    9. Fereshteh Didegah & Mike Thelwall, 2013. "Determinants of research citation impact in nanoscience and nanotechnology," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 64(5), pages 1055-1064, May.
    10. David I. Stern, 2014. "High-Ranked Social Science Journal Articles Can Be Identified from Early Citation Information," Crawford School Research Papers 1406, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Einmahl, J. H.J. & Dekkers, A. L.M. & de Haan, L., 1989. "A moment estimator for the index of an extreme-value distribution," Other publications TiSEM 81970cb3-5b7a-4cad-9bf6-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Wang, Mingyang & Yu, Guang & Xu, Jianzhong & He, Huixin & Yu, Daren & An, Shuang, 2012. "Development a case-based classifier for predicting highly cited papers," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 586-599.
    13. Beirlant, Jan & Glänzel, Wolfgang & Carbonez, An & Leemans, Herlinde, 2007. "Scoring research output using statistical quantile plotting," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 185-192.
    14. Didegah, Fereshteh & Thelwall, Mike, 2013. "Which factors help authors produce the highest impact research? Collaboration, journal and document properties," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 861-873.
    15. Wallace, Matthew L. & Larivière, Vincent & Gingras, Yves, 2009. "Modeling a century of citation distributions," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 296-303.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mingyang Wang & Shi Li & Guangsheng Chen, 2017. "Detecting latent referential articles based on their vitality performance in the latest 2 years," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(3), pages 1557-1571, September.
    2. Thelwall, Mike & Nevill, Tamara, 2018. "Could scientists use Altmetric.com scores to predict longer term citation counts?," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 237-248.
    3. Babak Sohrabi & Hamideh Iraj, 2017. "The effect of keyword repetition in abstract and keyword frequency per journal in predicting citation counts," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 110(1), pages 243-251, January.
    4. Cao, Xuanyu & Chen, Yan & Ray Liu, K.J., 2016. "A data analytic approach to quantifying scientific impact," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 471-484.
    5. Huang, Ding-wei, 2016. "Positive correlation between quality and quantity in academic journals," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 329-335.
    6. Abramo, Giovanni, 2018. "Revisiting the scientometric conceptualization of impact and its measurement," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 590-597.
    7. repec:spr:ijsaem:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s13198-016-0487-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Vasilios D. Kosteas, 2018. "Predicting long-run citation counts for articles in top economics journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(3), pages 1395-1412, June.
    9. Feiheng Luo & Aixin Sun & Mojisola Erdt & Aravind Sesagiri Raamkumar & Yin-Leng Theng, 2018. "Exploring prestigious citations sourced from top universities in bibliometrics and altmetrics: a case study in the computer science discipline," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 114(1), pages 1-17, January.
    10. Mike Thelwall, 2018. "Early Mendeley readers correlate with later citation counts," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(3), pages 1231-1240, June.
    11. Thelwall, Mike & Fairclough, Ruth, 2017. "The accuracy of confidence intervals for field normalised indicators," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 530-540.
    12. Abramo, Giovanni & D’Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea & Felici, Giovanni, 2019. "Predicting publication long-term impact through a combination of early citations and journal impact factor," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 32-49.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:infome:v:9:y:2015:i:3:p:642-657. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joi .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.