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Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit

Author

Listed:
  • Xinyu Jiang

    (Kyoto University)

  • Nobuhito Mori

    (Kyoto University)

  • Hirokazu Tatano

    (Kyoto University)

  • Lijiao Yang

    (Kyoto University)

  • Yoko Shibutani

    (Kyoto University)

Abstract

This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyu Jiang & Nobuhito Mori & Hirokazu Tatano & Lijiao Yang & Yoko Shibutani, 2016. "Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 35-49, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:84:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-015-2085-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2085-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
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    4. Hirokazu Tatano & Satoshi Tsuchiya, 2008. "A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(2), pages 253-265, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xinyu Jiang & Nobuhito Mori & Hirokazu Tatano & Lijiao Yang, 2019. "Simulation-Based Exceedance Probability Curves to Assess the Economic Impact of Storm Surge Inundations due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Ise Bay, Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, February.

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