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Is there a copper super-cycle?

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  • Christopher L. Gilbert

    (Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe)

Abstract

It has been argued that the copper price exhibits “super-cycles” with periodicities of 30–60 years. Estimates of these super-cycles are typically generated by the bandpass filter. These filtered results are better interpreted as irregular episodic waves. The cyclical interpretation relies on an arbitrary separation between the cycle and an implicitly defined smooth trend. Analysis using the unobserved components model shows the price trend to be stochastic, not smooth. There is some evidence for short and poorly defined cycles but at best weak evidence for a long copper super-cycle. This finding is supported by examination of the price spectrum and generalizes to other non-ferrous metals.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher L. Gilbert, 2024. "Is there a copper super-cycle?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 37(2), pages 359-380, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:37:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s13563-022-00355-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-022-00355-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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