IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minecn/v36y2023i2d10.1007_s13563-021-00283-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future availability of mineral resources: ultimate reserves and total material requirement

Author

Listed:
  • Larona S. Teseletso

    (Akita University)

  • Tsuyoshi Adachi

    (Akita University)

Abstract

Mineral resources are fundamental to drive the economic growth in a modern society. Although these resources have extensively been crossed referenced as “finite,” their metal production has increased steadily over the decades. The concept of “peak oil” has been under extensive debate, whereas that of “peak minerals” of individual metals lacks in-depth studies. This study aimed to provide a brief account of the ultimate recoverable resources for copper (Cu), gold (Au), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). We utilized grade tonnage curves to illustrate future resource availability against a decline in the metal ore grade. Furthermore, an environmental indicator was calculated based on the total material requirement (TMR) to evaluate the present and future trends. Consequently, a visible decline in the metal grade for Cu, Ni, Au, Pb, and Zn was observed, whereas the future ore grade for Fe was projected to decline gradually. Furthermore, we estimated that as ultimate recoverable reserves peak approaches, metals will be recoverable at lower grades. The TMR increased for all metals, thus, indicating potential vulnerability to the environment. The findings indicate that awareness on the declining metal grades, environmental impacts of metals, and future mineral supplies will increase; however, other factors that govern the dynamics of recoverability and availability of these metals will offset the peak of these resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Larona S. Teseletso & Tsuyoshi Adachi, 2023. "Future availability of mineral resources: ultimate reserves and total material requirement," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 189-206, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:36:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s13563-021-00283-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-021-00283-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13563-021-00283-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13563-021-00283-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koji Tokimatsu & Shinsuke Murakami & Tsuyoshi Adachi & Ryota Ii & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio, 2017. "Long-term demand and supply of non-ferrous mineral resources by a mineral balance model," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(3), pages 193-206, October.
    2. Bringezu, Stefan & Schutz, Helmut & Steger, Soren & Baudisch, Jan, 2004. "International comparison of resource use and its relation to economic growth: The development of total material requirement, direct material inputs and hidden flows and the structure of TMR," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 97-124, November.
    3. Friedrich -W. Wellmer & Roland W. Scholz, 2017. "Peak minerals: What can we learn from the history of mineral economics and the cases of gold and phosphorus?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(2), pages 73-93, July.
    4. Lawrence D. Meinert & Gilpin R. Robinson & Nedal T. Nassar, 2016. "Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Mudd, Gavin M., 2010. "The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 98-115, June.
    6. R. H. E. M. Koppelaar & H. Koppelaar, 2016. "The Ore Grade and Depth Influence on Copper Energy Inputs," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Phillip Crowson, 2011. "Mineral reserves and future minerals availability," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 24(1), pages 1-6, July.
    8. Nadine Rötzer & Mario Schmidt, 2018. "Decreasing Metal Ore Grades—Is the Fear of Resource Depletion Justified?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Mudd, Gavin M., 2007. "Global trends in gold mining: Towards quantifying environmental and resource sustainability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 42-56.
    10. Carlos Scheel & Eduardo Aguiñaga & Bernardo Bello, 2020. "Decoupling Economic Development from the Consumption of Finite Resources Using Circular Economy. A Model for Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Priester & Magnus Ericsson & Peter Dolega & Olof Löf, 2019. "Mineral grades: an important indicator for environmental impact of mineral exploitation," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(1), pages 49-73, April.
    2. Larona S. Teseletso & Tsuyoshi Adachi, 2022. "Long-Term Sustainability of Copper and Iron Based on a System Dynamics Model," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Guiomar Calvo & Gavin Mudd & Alicia Valero & Antonio Valero, 2016. "Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Ki‐Hoon Lee, 2017. "Does Size Matter? Evaluating Corporate Environmental Disclosure in the Australian Mining and Metal Industry: A Combined Approach of Quantity and Quality Measurement," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 209-223, February.
    5. Elena N. Shaforostova & Olga V. Kosareva-Volod’ko & Olga V. Belyankina & Danila Y. Solovykh & Ekaterina S. Sazankova & Elena I. Sizova & Danila A. Adigamov, 2023. "A Tailing Dump as Industrial Deposit; Study of the Mineralogical Composition of Tailing Dump of the Southern Urals and the Possibility of Tailings Re-Development," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-13, February.
    6. Swart, Pilar & Dewulf, Jo, 2013. "Quantifying the impacts of primary metal resource use in life cycle assessment based on recent mining data," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 180-187.
    7. Sverdrup, Harald U. & Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala & Koca, Deniz, 2015. "Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 139-154.
    8. Fuisz-Kehrbach, Sonja-Katrin, 2015. "A three-dimensional framework to explore corporate sustainability activities in the mining industry: Current status and challenges ahead," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P1), pages 101-115.
    9. Friedrich-W. Wellmer, 2022. "What we have learned from the past and how we should look forward," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 765-795, December.
    10. Gavin M. Mudd & Mohan Yellishetty & Barbara K. Reck & T. E. Graedel, 2014. "Quantifying the Recoverable Resources of Companion Metals: A Preliminary Study of Australian Mineral Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Tuusjärvi, Mari, 2013. "Tracking changes in the global impacts of metal concentrate acquisition for the metals industry in Finland," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 12-20.
    12. Sergio Elías Uribe-Sierra & Pablo Mansilla-Quiñones & Alejandro Israel Mora-Rojas, 2022. "Latent Rural Depopulation in Latin American Open-Pit Mining Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-23, August.
    13. White, Ben & Doole, Graeme J. & Pannell, David J. & Florec, Veronique, 2012. "Optimal environmental policy design for mine rehabilitation and pollution with a risk of non-compliance owing to firm insolvency," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 1-22.
    14. Nadine Rötzer & Mario Schmidt, 2020. "Historical, Current, and Future Energy Demand from Global Copper Production and Its Impact on Climate Change," Resources, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-31, April.
    15. Chazel, Simon & Bernard, Sophie & Benchekroun, Hassan, 2023. "Energy transition under mineral constraints and recycling: A low-carbon supply peak," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Bide, T. & Brown, T.J. & Gunn, A.G. & Deady, E., 2022. "Development of decision-making tools to create a harmonised UK national mineral resource inventory using the United Nations Framework Classification," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. António Mateus & Catarina Lopes & Luís Martins & Mário Abel Gonçalves, 2021. "Current and Foreseen Tungsten Production in Portugal, and the Need of Safeguarding the Access to Relevant Known Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-26, June.
    18. Saidia Ali & Farid Shirazi, 2022. "A Transformer-Based Machine Learning Approach for Sustainable E-Waste Management: A Comparative Policy Analysis between the Swiss and Canadian Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-22, October.
    19. Henning Wigger & Till Zimmermann & Christian Pade, 2015. "Broadening our view on nanomaterials: highlighting potentials to contribute to a sustainable materials management in preliminary assessments," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 110-128, March.
    20. Prince Amoah & Gabriel Eweje, 2021. "Impact mitigation or ecological restoration? Examining the environmental sustainability practices of multinational mining companies," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 551-565, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:36:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s13563-021-00283-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.