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World population stabilisation through Smithian increasing returns to labour: an update

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao Jiang

    (Denison University)

  • Luis Villanueva

    (Denison University)

Abstract

In light of classical political economists’ ideas (especially Smith and Malthus) and more recent theory of demographic transition, Foley (Econ Lett 68:309–317, 2000) constructed a simple integrated population model, which is then used as an alternative tool to project the stabilising level of world population and income level associated with it. This paper is an update of this line of research using more recent empirical evidence. We find the world still exhibits a strong pattern of Smithian increasing returns to scale and most countries’ populations have been stabilising along a convex income–fertility schedule. Our projections suggest that the world population will stabilise at 11.4 billion with per capita income around $12,595 in constant 2005 USD. Unfortunately, the process of world population stabilisation tends to be accompanied with growing global income equality.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao Jiang & Luis Villanueva, 2017. "World population stabilisation through Smithian increasing returns to labour: an update," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 387-407, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:34:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12546-017-9194-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-017-9194-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Foley, Duncan K., 2000. "Stabilization of human population through economic increasing returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 309-317, September.
    2. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2014. "Can government policies reverse undesirable declines in fertility?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-23, May.
    3. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    4. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2014:p:23 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Cheng, Wenli & Yang, Xiaokai, 2004. "Inframarginal analysis of division of labor: A survey," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 137-174, October.
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