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The motherhood penalty and low fertility in China: a pseudo-event study

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Huang

    (National School of Development (NSD), Peking University)

  • Yiping Wang

    (National School of Development (NSD), Peking University)

  • Hantao Wu

    (Princeton University)

  • Yi Zhou

    (Peking University)

Abstract

Using census data from 2000 to 2015 and a pseudo-event study design, this paper estimates the magnitude, distribution, and trend of the motherhood penalty in China, while examining its relationship with the country’s declining fertility rates. The findings reveal that one-third of working women leave the labor market in the year they give birth, with the penalty persisting for over 8 years. The magnitude of the penalty increased significantly during the study period across most provinces, and regions with larger increases in the penalty experienced sharper declines in fertility rates. A mover-based design analysis shows that when women migrate to provinces with higher motherhood penalties, their fertility rates drop significantly. This study contributes to the literature by applying a novel pseudo-event study approach to cross-sectional data, offering new insights into the interaction between labor market constraints and fertility decisions in a rapidly evolving socio-economic context.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Huang & Yiping Wang & Hantao Wu & Yi Zhou, 2025. "The motherhood penalty and low fertility in China: a pseudo-event study," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-29, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:38:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-025-01078-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-025-01078-3
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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