IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/fininn/v11y2025i1d10.1186_s40854-025-00774-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cross-sectional anomalies and conditional asset pricing models based on investor sentiment: evidence from the Chinese stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Zhong‑Qiang Zhou

    (Guizhou University of Finance and Economics
    Digital Economy Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences Research Base)

  • Jiajia Wu

    (Guizhou University of Finance and Economics
    Digital Economy Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences Research Base)

  • Ping Huang

    (Guizhou University of Commerce)

  • Xiong Xiong

    (Tianjin University
    Laboratory of Computation and Analytics of Complex Management Systems (CACMS))

Abstract

This study examines a comprehensive set of 30 cross-sectional anomalies in the Chinese A-share market to investigate whether incorporating investor sentiment as conditioning information enhances the explanatory power of asset pricing models. Utilizing a long–short portfolio strategy and Fama–MacBeth cross-sectional regression, we find that trading-based anomalies outnumber accounting-based anomalies in the Chinese market. Our results demonstrate that conditional models significantly outperform their unconditional counterparts. Notably, investor sentiment is crucial for capturing the size anomaly when excluding observations from the COVID-19 pandemic period. Additionally, it substantially improves the ability of conditional Fama–French three-factor models to capture individual anomalies and enhances the return–prediction accuracy of conditional CAPMs. We suggest further investigating high-frequency investor sentiment-based conditional models to anticipate stock price fluctuations during extraordinary public health events.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhong‑Qiang Zhou & Jiajia Wu & Ping Huang & Xiong Xiong, 2025. "Cross-sectional anomalies and conditional asset pricing models based on investor sentiment: evidence from the Chinese stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:11:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-025-00774-z
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-025-00774-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40854-025-00774-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40854-025-00774-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    2. Han, Chunmao & Shi, Yongdong, 2022. "Chinese stock anomalies and investor sentiment," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. Jansen, Maarten & Swinkels, Laurens & Zhou, Weili, 2021. "Anomalies in the China A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Emre Cevik & Buket Kirci Altinkeski & Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu, 2022. "Investor sentiments and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, December.
    6. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    7. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    8. Berggrun, Luis & Cardona, Emilio & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo, 2024. "Evaluating asset pricing anomalies: Evidence from Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    9. Liu, Jianan & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yuan, Yu, 2019. "Size and value in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 48-69.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Tan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Zili & Zhao, Xuejun & Wang, Chengxiang, 2021. "Investor sentiment and limits of arbitrage: Evidence from Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 577-595.
    12. Bali, Turan G. & Engle, Robert F., 2010. "The intertemporal capital asset pricing model with dynamic conditional correlations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 377-390, May.
    13. Ho, Chienwei & Hung, Chi-Hsiou, 2009. "Investor sentiment as conditioning information in asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 892-903, May.
    14. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
    15. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    16. Mehra, Rajnish & Sah, Raaj, 2002. "Mood fluctuations, projection bias, and volatility of equity prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 869-887, May.
    17. Rutkowska – Ziarko, Anna & Markowski, Lesław & Abdou, Hussein A., 2024. "Conditional CAPM relationships in standard and accounting risk approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    19. Bayram Veli Salur & Cumhur Ekinci, 2023. "Anomalies and Investor Sentiment: International Evidence and the Impact of Size Factor," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, March.
    20. Bai, Chenjiang & Duan, Yuejiao & Fan, Xiaoyun & Tang, Shuai, 2023. "Financial market sentiment and stock return during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    21. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    22. Shanken, Jay, 1990. "Intertemporal asset pricing : An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 99-120.
    23. Gao, Zhenbin & Zhang, Jie, 2023. "The fluctuation correlation between investor sentiment and stock index using VMD-LSTM: Evidence from China stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    24. Cong Wang, 2024. "Stock return prediction with multiple measures using neural network models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, December.
    25. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    2. John A. Doukas & Xiao Han, 2021. "Sentiment‐scaled CAPM and market mispricing," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), pages 208-243, March.
    3. Wenjie Ding & Khelifa Mazouz & Qingwei Wang, 2019. "Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns: new theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-525, August.
    4. Constantinos Antoniou & John A. Doukas & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2016. "Investor Sentiment, Beta, and the Cost of Equity Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 347-367, February.
    5. Khasawneh, Maher & McMillan, David G. & Kambouroudis, Dimos, 2024. "Left-tail risk and UK stock return predictability: Underreaction, overreaction, and arbitrage difficulties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    6. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2023. "Managing the Market Portfolio," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3675-3696, June.
    7. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    8. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    9. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    10. Dragos Stefan Oprea & Laura Brad, 2014. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Romania," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 19-25, April.
    11. repec:hur:ijaraf:v:4:y:2014:i:2:p:23-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Guo, Haifeng & Hung, Chi-Hsiou D. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2022. "The Fed and the stock market: A tale of sentiment states," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    13. Niall O’Sullivan & Sheng Zhu & Jason Foran, 2019. "Sentiment versus liquidity pricing effects in the cross-section of UK stock returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 317-329, July.
    14. Shen, Junyan & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2017. "Investor sentiment and economic forces," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-21.
    15. Ashour, Samar & Hao, Grace Qing & Harper, Adam, 2023. "Investor sentiment, style investing, and momentum," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y., 2019. "Can investor sentiment predict the size premium?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 10-26.
    17. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
    19. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    20. Bathia, Deven & Bredin, Don, 2018. "Investor sentiment: Does it augment the performance of asset pricing models?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 290-303.
    21. Liang, Woan-lih, 2016. "Sensitivity to investor sentiment and stock performance of open market share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 75-94.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:11:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-025-00774-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.