IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v22y2006i2d10.1007_s10680-005-7434-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Arnstein Aassve

    (University of Essex)

  • Francesco C. Billari

    (Università Bocconi)

  • Zsolt Spéder

    (Demographic Research Institute)

Abstract

The paper uses the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey ‘Turning Points in the Life-course’ (HGGS) to describe recent changes in union formation, onset of childbearing, leaving home and cohabitation. By estimating survivor functions and semi-parametric hazard regression models with time-varying covariates for the timing of first union and first birth, we find a long delay among the youngest cohorts, but also remarkably strong period effects. Reduced employment, increased educational enrolment, and a higher level of uncertainty are important drivers behind these changes. Moreover, our evidence suggests that certain policy changes during the transition have exacerbated this effect, having an asymmetric impact on family formation – depending on the social status of individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnstein Aassve & Francesco C. Billari & Zsolt Spéder, 2006. "Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 127-152, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:22:y:2006:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-005-7434-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-005-7434-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-005-7434-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-005-7434-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Bongaarts, 2002. "The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(3), pages 419-443, September.
    2. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, October.
    3. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov, 2004. "Women's education and entry into a first union. A simultaneous-hazard comparative analysis of Central and Eastern Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 91-110.
    4. Tomáš Sobotka & Kryštof Zeman & Vladimíra Kantorová, 2003. "Demographic Shifts in the Czech Republic after 1989: A Second Demographic Transition View," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 249-277, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gerda Neyer & Trude Lappegård & Daniele Vignoli, 2013. "Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 245-272, August.
    2. Eun Jung Kim & Min Jung Cho, 2021. "The Association between Assisted Reproduction Technology (ART) and Social Perception of Childbearing Deadline Ages: A Cross-Country Examination of Selected EU Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Soo-Jung Byoun & Shinwoo Choi & Hye-Young Kim, 2021. "Exploring the Diverse Family Structures in South Korea: Experiences and Perspectives of Nonmartial Cohabitants," Societies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Kevin Ralston & Vernon Gayle & Paul Lambert, 2016. "Gender, Occupation and First Birth: Do ‘Career Men’ Delay First Birth Too?," Sociological Research Online, , vol. 21(1), pages 90-101, February.
    5. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    6. Jonas Wood & Karel Neels & Tine Kil, 2014. "The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(46), pages 1365-1416.
    7. Insu Chang & Heeran Park & Hosung Sohn, 2021. "Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths: Evidence from Working Mothers and School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 997-1022, November.
    8. Júlia Mikolai, 2012. "With Or Without You. Partnership Context Of First Conceptions And Births In Hungary," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 55(5), pages 37-60.
    9. Zhu, Yajing & Steele, Fiona & Moustaki, Irini, 2020. "A multilevel structural equation model for the interrelationships between multiple latent dimensions of childhood socio‐economic circumstances, partnership transitions and mid‐life health," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103104, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Irina Kalabikhina & Alla Tyndik, 2014. "Does current demographic policy in Russia impact on fertility of different educational groups?," Working Papers 0010, Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics.
    11. Zsolt Spéder & Tamás Bartus, 2017. "Educational Enrolment, Double-Status Positions and the Transition to Motherhood in Hungary," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 55-85, February.
    12. Jos Timmermans & Hans Haan & Flaminio Squazzoni, 2008. "Computational and mathematical approaches to societal transitions," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 391-414, December.
    13. Flaminio Squazzoni, 2008. "A (computational) social science perspective on societal transitions," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 266-282, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2009. "Ideational factors and parenthood. A gender- and parity specific analysis in a post-communist society," Working Papers on Population, Family and Welfare 11, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute.
    2. Arland Thornton & Dimiter Philipov, 2009. "Sweeping Changes in Marriage, Cohabitation and Childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework [Transformations radicales du mariage, de la cohabi," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 123-156, May.
    3. Diane J. Macunovich, 1999. "The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 215-272.
    4. Apolte, Thomas & Gerling, Lena, 2015. "Youth bulges, insurrections, and politico-economic institutions: Theory and empirical evidence," CIW Discussion Papers 3/2015, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    5. Baruce C. Rudy, 2014. "The Wal-Mart Effect? Exploring the Social Costs of Explosive Organizational Growth," Working Papers 0191mgmt, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    6. Dahlberg, Susanne & Nahum, Ruth-Aïda, 2003. "Cohort Effects on Earnings Profiles: Evidence from Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2003:3, Institute for Futures Studies.
    7. John C. Caldwell, 2004. "Demographic Theory: A Long View," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 297-316, June.
    8. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    9. Mark Rank & Thomas Hirschl, 1993. "The link between population density and welfare participation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 30(4), pages 607-622, November.
    10. Enrique Acosta & Alain Gagnon & Nadine Ouellette & Robert R. Bourbeau & Marilia R. Nepomuceno & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2020. "The boomer penalty: excess mortality among baby boomers in Canada and the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(8), pages 171-224.
    12. Elizabeth Fussell, 2002. "The Transition to Adulthood in Aging Societies," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 580(1), pages 16-39, March.
    13. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2014. "Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(3), pages 393-418, June.
    14. Timothy Riffe & Kieron J. Barclay & Sebastian Klüsener & Christina Bohk-Ewald, 2019. "Boom, echo, pulse, flow: 385 years of Swedish births," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Heinrich Hock & David Weil, 2012. "On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1019-1043, July.
    16. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    17. Emerson Patrick M. & Knabb Shawn D., 2020. "Education Spending, Fertility Shocks and Generational Consumption Risk," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-26, June.
    18. David Weil, 2006. "Population Aging," Working Papers 2006-09, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    19. Daniela Kuruczova & Jana Klanova & Jiri Jarkovsky & Hynek Pikhart & Julie Bienertova-Vasku, 2020. "Socioeconomic characteristics, family structure and trajectories of children’s psychosocial problems in a period of social transition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, June.
    20. Allan Puur & Martin Klesment, 2011. "Signs Of A Stable Or Provisional Increase In Fertility? Reflections On Developments In Estonia," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 54(5), pages 31-55.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:22:y:2006:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-005-7434-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.