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Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Arnstein Aassve

    (University of Essex)

  • Francesco C. Billari

    (Università Bocconi)

  • Zsolt Spéder

    (Demographic Research Institute)

Abstract

The paper uses the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey ‘Turning Points in the Life-course’ (HGGS) to describe recent changes in union formation, onset of childbearing, leaving home and cohabitation. By estimating survivor functions and semi-parametric hazard regression models with time-varying covariates for the timing of first union and first birth, we find a long delay among the youngest cohorts, but also remarkably strong period effects. Reduced employment, increased educational enrolment, and a higher level of uncertainty are important drivers behind these changes. Moreover, our evidence suggests that certain policy changes during the transition have exacerbated this effect, having an asymmetric impact on family formation – depending on the social status of individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnstein Aassve & Francesco C. Billari & Zsolt Spéder, 2006. "Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 127-152, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:22:y:2006:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-005-7434-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-005-7434-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Bongaarts, 2002. "The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(3), pages 419-443, September.
    2. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov, 2004. "Women's education and entry into a first union. A simultaneous-hazard comparative analysis of Central and Eastern Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 91-110.
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    4. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Eun Jung Kim & Min Jung Cho, 2021. "The Association between Assisted Reproduction Technology (ART) and Social Perception of Childbearing Deadline Ages: A Cross-Country Examination of Selected EU Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Silvia Meggiolaro & Fausta Ongaro & Elena Pirani, 2024. "First Union Formation in Italy: The Role of Micro- and Macro-Level Economic Conditions," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-34, December.
    4. Soo-Jung Byoun & Shinwoo Choi & Hye-Young Kim, 2021. "Exploring the Diverse Family Structures in South Korea: Experiences and Perspectives of Nonmartial Cohabitants," Societies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, August.
    5. Kevin Ralston & Vernon Gayle & Paul Lambert, 2016. "Gender, Occupation and First Birth: Do ‘Career Men’ Delay First Birth Too?," Sociological Research Online, , vol. 21(1), pages 90-101, February.
    6. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    7. Jonas Wood & Karel Neels & Tine Kil, 2014. "The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(46), pages 1365-1416.
    8. Insu Chang & Heeran Park & Hosung Sohn, 2021. "Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths: Evidence from Working Mothers and School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 997-1022, November.
    9. Júlia Mikolai, 2012. "With Or Without You. Partnership Context Of First Conceptions And Births In Hungary," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 55(5), pages 37-60.
    10. Zhu, Yajing & Steele, Fiona & Moustaki, Irini, 2020. "A multilevel structural equation model for the interrelationships between multiple latent dimensions of childhood socio‐economic circumstances, partnership transitions and mid‐life health," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103104, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Irina Kalabikhina & Alla Tyndik, 2014. "Does current demographic policy in Russia impact on fertility of different educational groups?," Working Papers 0010, Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics.
    12. Zsolt Spéder & Tamás Bartus, 2017. "Educational Enrolment, Double-Status Positions and the Transition to Motherhood in Hungary," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 55-85, February.
    13. Jos Timmermans & Hans Haan & Flaminio Squazzoni, 2008. "Computational and mathematical approaches to societal transitions," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 391-414, December.
    14. Flaminio Squazzoni, 2008. "A (computational) social science perspective on societal transitions," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 266-282, December.

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