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Large dimension forecasting models and random singular value spectra

Author

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  • J.-P. Bouchaud

    ()

  • L. Laloux
  • M. A. Miceli
  • M. Potters

Abstract

We present a general method to detect and extract from a finite time sample statistically meaningful correlations between input and output variables of large dimensionality. Our central result is derived from the theory of free random matrices, and gives an explicit expression for the interval where singular values are expected in the absence of any true correlations between the variables under study. Our result can be seen as the natural generalization of the Marčenko-Pastur distribution for the case of rectangular correlation matrices. We illustrate the interest of our method on a set of macroeconomic time series. Copyright EDP Sciences/Società Italiana di Fisica/Springer-Verlag 2007

Suggested Citation

  • J.-P. Bouchaud & L. Laloux & M. A. Miceli & M. Potters, 2007. "Large dimension forecasting models and random singular value spectra," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 201-207, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:55:y:2007:i:2:p:201-207
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2006-00204-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sandoval, Leonidas & Franca, Italo De Paula, 2012. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 187-208.
    2. repec:eee:phsmap:v:507:y:2018:i:c:p:499-509 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Papers 1102.1339, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    4. Romain Allez & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Eigenvector dynamics: general theory and some applications," Papers 1203.6228, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2012.
    5. Christoly Biely & Stefan Thurner, 2008. "Random matrix ensembles of time-lagged correlation matrices: derivation of eigenvalue spectra and analysis of financial time-series," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 705-722.
    6. repec:eee:stapro:v:126:y:2017:i:c:p:33-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Linda Margarita Medina Herrera & Ernesto Armando Pacheco Velazquez, 2013. "Spectral Analysis And Networks In Financial Correlation Matrices, Analisis Espectral Y Redes En Matrices De Correlacion Financiera," Revista Internacional Administracion & Finanzas, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(6), pages 15-28.
    8. Reigneron, Pierre-Alain & Allez, Romain & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2011. "Principal regression analysis and the index leverage effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(17), pages 3026-3035.
    9. Joel Bun & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Potters, 2016. "Cleaning large correlation matrices: tools from random matrix theory," Papers 1610.08104, arXiv.org.

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