IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/epolin/v52y2025i1d10.1007_s40812-024-00307-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 shock on supply chains: evidence from a developing country

Author

Listed:
  • Amal Medini

    (University of Tunis)

  • Leila Baghdadi

    (University of Tunis
    World Bank Group)

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown policies on Tunisia’s supply chains. We estimate a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model using data on bilateral imports for intermediate, capital, and final goods for the years 2019 and 2020 at the country–month–product level. Our results show that, overall, lockdowns in Tunisia’s partner countries had a significant and negative effect on imports made under both offshore and onshore regimes. Specifically, we observe a considerable fall in imports of intermediate and final goods under the offshore regime, which primarily involves firms producing goods for export and having a higher level of integration in global value chains. Additionally, all types of imports made under the onshore regime were affected by exporter lockdowns. Our results also reveal a certain heterogeneity related to some specific product and product–country characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Amal Medini & Leila Baghdadi, 2025. "COVID-19 shock on supply chains: evidence from a developing country," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 52(1), pages 59-80, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolin:v:52:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s40812-024-00307-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s40812-024-00307-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40812-024-00307-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40812-024-00307-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    2. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Baghdadi, Leila & Kheder, Sonia Ben & Arouri, Hassen, 2019. "Assessing the Performance of Offshore Firms in Tunisia," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 280-307.
    4. Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle & Parenti, Mathieu, 2020. "Relationship stickiness, international trade, and economic uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 15609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    3. Graham, Bryan S., 2020. "Network data," Handbook of Econometrics,, Elsevier.
    4. Goya, Daniel, 2021. "The network effect of Chinese competition on what domestic suppliers produce," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2019. "Financial dependence and growth: The role of input-output linkages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 308-328.
    6. Jarreau, Joachim & Poncet, Sandra, 2012. "Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 281-292.
    7. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Freshwater, David, 2014. "Vulnerability and Resilience: Two Dimensions of Rurality," Staff Papers 174103, University of Kentucky, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    9. Evgeny N. SMIRNOV & Sergey A. LUKYANOV, 2019. "Assessment of the transforming impact of global value chains on international trade," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 36-46, July.
    10. Gideon Ndubuisi & Solomon Owusu, 2021. "How important is GVC participation to export upgrading?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2887-2908, October.
    11. Muhammad Nadeem Sarwar, 2023. "An Evaluation of Different Tax Reform Proposals in Pakistan using CGE Model," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 62(3), pages 309-330.
    12. Amiti, Mary & Duprez, Cédric & Konings, Jozef & Van Reenen, John, 2024. "FDI and superstar spillovers: Evidence from firm-to-firm transactions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz & Katrin Kamin & Joschka Wanner, 2024. "Brothers in arms: the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(118), pages 471-512.
    14. Ersahin, Nuri & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Huang, Ruidi, 2024. "Trade credit and the stability of supply chains," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Lionel Fontagné & Sophie Hatte, 2013. "European High-End Products in International Competition," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS hal-00959394, HAL.
    16. Erbahar, Aksel & Rebeyrol, Vincent, 2023. "Trade intermediation by producers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Erik Braun & Emese Braun & András Gyimesi & Zita Iloskics & Tamás Sebestyén, 2023. "Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(10), pages 2950-2982, October.
    18. Alcalá, Francisco & Solaz, Marta, 2018. "International Relocation of Production and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 13422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. A D Adom, 2016. "Resilience of developing countries to shocks: Case study of WAEMU countries with SUR and VAR Approaches," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 105-138, September.
    20. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2006. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 207-232, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Supply chain; Trade regime; Lockdown stringency; Tunisia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:epolin:v:52:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s40812-024-00307-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.