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Forecasting emissions of atmospheric pollutants in North Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Seung-Kuk Cho

    (Hansei University)

  • Seung-Jun Kwak

    (Korea University)

Abstract

Based on North Korea’s energy consumption of coal, oil, and electric power during a 20-year span between 1975 and 1994, this study estimated the demand of each energy source and forecasts the demand of each energy source for the next 10 years. The forecasted demand for energy, in turn, is used to forecast emissions of atmospheric pollutants, such as total suspended particles (TSP), SOx, CO2, hydrocarbons (HC), and NOx, for the next 10 years using emission factors. In doing so, this study adopts the ordinary least squares (OLS) approach and the vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, which, as only limited data are available concerning the energy, environmental, and economic situation of North Korea, is expected to improve the forecasting of emissions of atmospheric pollutants in North Korea.

Suggested Citation

  • Seung-Kuk Cho & Seung-Jun Kwak, 2001. "Forecasting emissions of atmospheric pollutants in North Korea," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 4(1), pages 29-43, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:4:y:2001:i:1:d:10.1007_bf03353970
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03353970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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    Keywords

    Forecasting emissions; North Korea;

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