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Global long-term greenhouse gas mitigation emission scenarios based on AIM

Author

Listed:
  • Kejun Jiang

    (Energy Research Institute, Zhansimenlu)

  • Tsuneyuki Morita

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Toshihiko Masui

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Yuzuru Matsuoka

    (Kyoto University)

Abstract

In order to respond to climate change, it is essential to describe possible future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trajectories in both nonintervention and intervention terms. This paper analyzes long-term GHG mitigation emission scenarios according to alternative development paths in the world and major regions, based on the nonintervention emission scenarios quantified by the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). AIM is revised and applied to the quantification of narrative storylines for scenarios of socioeconomic development, and GHG emissions from energy use, land-use change, and industrial production processes are simulated. A wide range of mitigation policies are adopted in this simulation as responses to the climate change. Several target stabilized levels—650, 550 and 450ppmv—are analyzed. The results show that to achieve stabilization at a different GHG concentration level, a policy package is essential to reach the target concentration level, rather than a single policy. Energy efficiency improvement will be a key contributor to the reduction of GHG emissions as a result of the policy package. The mitigation cost could be at a medium level, without a large loss of economic growth. The developing world could significantly reduce GHG emissions compared with nonmitigation scenarios with sufficient knowledge transfer from developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kejun Jiang & Tsuneyuki Morita & Toshihiko Masui & Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2000. "Global long-term greenhouse gas mitigation emission scenarios based on AIM," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 239-254, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:3:y:2000:i:2:d:10.1007_bf03354039
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03354039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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