Optimal allocation of urban new energy vehicles and traditional energy vehicles considering pollution and cost

With a large number of new energy vehicles being put into use, it is the general trend for traditional fuel vehicles to withdraw from the market in an orderly manner. Determining the optimal ratio between them in this process is of great significance to the low-carbon sustainable development of cities. Therefore, considering the constraints of urban automobile development planning and air pollution prevention and control policies, a multi-objective model to minimize pollutants and costs is constructed in this paper. Through model calculation and sensitivity analysis of dynamic impact relationship of different types of vehicles, it is determined that when new energy vehicles account for around 36% in Beijing, 57% in Shanghai and 46% in Guangzhou, the pollutant emissions can be minimized without causing a significant increase in social costs. Additionally, compared with 2030, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou can achieve emission reductions of 320,000 tons, 200,000 tons and 250,000 tons, respectively, in 2050 if they implement the policy of banning the sale and delisting of fuel vehicles, which could provide suggestions for the guidance of the low-carbon development plan of the automobile industry.