China’s embodied oil outflow: estimation and structural path analysis

Large-scale exports of “Made in China” products are accompanied by a substantial outflow of embodied oil, which is a major threat to China’s energy security. Based on a multi-region input–output model and structural path analysis, we estimate the quantity of embodied oil in China’s exports, quantify the contributions of different production layers and industrial paths to China’s domestic embodied oil outflow, and further identify the roles of different sectors in this process. The results show that China’s embodied oil outflow was dominated by domestic embodied oil; the contributions from higher production layers to domestic embodied oil outflow noticed a rise, and export production tended to drive more oil consumption in China’s domestic production system through intermediate inputs; and sectors played different roles in China’s domestic embodied oil outflow, with electrical, electronic, and optical equipment and textile and leather products being the “consumers,” coke and refined petroleum products being the “supplier,” and transport, warehousing, and postal service, chemical and chemical products, and basic metals and fabricated metal products being the “transmitters.” These findings can provide important references for China to reduce domestic embodied oil outflow by adjusting the trade structure and improving oil efficiency in critical industrial paths.