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Do Daughters Really Cause Divorce? Stress, Pregnancy, and Family Composition

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  • Amar Hamoudi
  • Jenna Nobles

Abstract

Provocative studies have reported that in the United States, marriages producing firstborn daughters are more likely to divorce than those producing firstborn sons. The findings have been interpreted as contemporary evidence of fathers’ son preference. Our study explores the potential role of another set of dynamics that may drive these patterns: namely, selection into live birth. Epidemiological evidence indicates that the characteristic female survival advantage may begin before birth. If stress accompanying unstable marriages has biological effects on fecundity, a female survival advantage could generate an association between stability and the sex composition of offspring. Combining regression and simulation techniques to analyze real-world data, we ask, How much of the observed association between sex of the firstborn child and risk of divorce could plausibly be accounted for by the joint effects of female survival advantage and reduced fecundity associated with unstable marriage? Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), we find that relationship conflict predicts the sex of children born after conflict was measured; conflict also predicts subsequent divorce. Conservative specification of parameters linking pregnancy characteristics, selection into live birth, and divorce are sufficient to generate a selection-driven association between offspring sex and divorce, which is consequential in magnitude. Our findings illustrate the value of demographic accounting of processes which occur before birth—a period when many outcomes of central interest in the population sciences begin to take shape. Copyright Population Association of America 2014

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  • Amar Hamoudi & Jenna Nobles, 2014. "Do Daughters Really Cause Divorce? Stress, Pregnancy, and Family Composition," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1423-1449, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:4:p:1423-1449
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-014-0305-x
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    1. Kabátek, Jan & Ribar, David C., 2017. "Teenage Daughters as a Cause of Divorce," Other publications TiSEM 69eba753-9d8f-4b68-bd8c-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Takaku, Reo, 2018. "First daughter effects in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 48-59.
    3. Scott Drewianka & Martin E. Meder, 2020. "Simultaneity and selection in financial hardship and divorce," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1245-1265, December.
    4. Fletcher, Jason M., 2018. "The effects of in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on family formation," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-68.
    5. Lei, Ziteng & Lundberg, Shelly, 2020. "Vulnerable Boys: Short-term and Long-term Gender Differences in the Impacts of Adolescent Disadvantage," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 424-448.
    6. Brenøe, Anne Ardila & Lundberg, Shelly, 2018. "Gender gaps in the effects of childhood family environment: Do they persist into adulthood?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 42-62.
    7. Mireia Borrell-Porta & Joan Costa-Font & Julia Philipp, 2019. "The ‘mighty girl’ effect: does parenting daughters alter attitudes towards gender norms?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 25-46.
    8. Tavassoli Nahid, 2021. "The Transition of Son Preference: Evidence from Southeast Asian Countries," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 43-67, June.
    9. Bucheli, Marisa & Vigorito, Andrea, 2019. "Union dissolution and well-being in Uruguay," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 61-71.
    10. Younghwan Song & Jia Gao, 2023. "Do fathers have son preference in the United States? Evidence from paternal subjective well-being," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 1083-1117, September.
    11. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2020. "The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way," NBER Working Papers 26929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2022. "Short‐ and medium‐run health and literacy impacts of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic in Brazil," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 997-1025, November.
    13. Olivia Bertelli, 2015. "The more the merrier? Adjusting fertility to weather shocks," Working Papers halshs-01226421, HAL.
    14. William Jergins, 2021. "Culture and son preference: Evidence from immigrants to the United States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 168-198, July.
    15. Nahid Tavassoli, 2021. "The Gender-Biased Fertility Behavior: Evidence from Southeast Asian Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 235-261, July.
    16. Ahsan, Md Nazmul & Maharaj, Riddhi, 2018. "Parental human capital and child health at birth in India," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 130-149.
    17. Borrell-Porta, Mireia & Costa-Font, Joan & Philipp, Julia, 2018. "The 'Mighty Girl' Effect: Does Parenting Daughters Alter Attitudes towards Gender Roles?," IZA Discussion Papers 11259, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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