IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v178y2025i4d10.1007_s10584-025-03909-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of future regional climate and land use change on compound dry-hot extreme: a case study of the Luan River Basin, Northwest China

Author

Listed:
  • Xing Lv

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Shihao Chen

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Baohui Men

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Canjun Liu

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Hongrui Wang

    (Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

The Compound Dry-Hot Extreme (CDHE) poses greater risks to the socio-economic, natural environment and human health than a single climate extreme. Studying its evolution under future development scenarios has significant implications for incident prevention and mitigation. However, previous studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on CDHE while ignoring the impacts of land use conversion. This study develops a framework for assessing climate extremes under a comprehensive consideration of future regional climate and land use changes based on the coupling of System Dynamic (SD), Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. The framework is applied to the Luan River Basin, the regional land use pattern is projected, CDHE under different combinations of climate and land use conditions are simulated, and the role of land use change in driving CDHE is emphasized. The result shows that (1) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, there is an acceleration land use conversions, especially urban expansion and forest degradation. (2) The expansion of built-up land areas has a significant exacerbating effect on CDHE, increasing its frequency by about 25%, duration by about 4% and magnitude by about 3%. This exacerbation has also subjected its adjacent region to 4.1% more CDHE occurrences and 2.6% greater CDHE magnitude. (3) CDHE is more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation, and that land use change affects CDHE mainly by changing near-surface temperature.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing Lv & Shihao Chen & Baohui Men & Canjun Liu & Hongrui Wang, 2025. "Impact of future regional climate and land use change on compound dry-hot extreme: a case study of the Luan River Basin, Northwest China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03909-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03909-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-025-03909-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-025-03909-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xia Xu & Mengxi Guan & Honglei Jiang & Lingfei Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    2. Zhang, Yitong & Hao, Zengchao & Zhang, Yu, 2023. "Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    3. Mahshid Ghanbari & Mazdak Arabi & Matei Georgescu & Ashley M. Broadbent, 2023. "The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Jiabo Yin & Pierre Gentine & Louise Slater & Lei Gu & Yadu Pokhrel & Naota Hanasaki & Shenglian Guo & Lihua Xiong & Wolfram Schlenker, 2023. "Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 259-272, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fengchun Ye & Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & Hong Liao, 2025. "Anthropogenic forcing dominates changes in compound long-duration dry and heat extremes in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Jun Li & Yao Zhang & Emanuele Bevacqua & Jakob Zscheischler & Trevor F. Keenan & Xu Lian & Sha Zhou & Hongying Zhang & Mingzhu He & Shilong Piao, 2024. "Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Shihao Chen & Jinfeng Pang & Zongzhen Bian & Baohui Men, 2025. "The Effects of Urban Land Expansion Intensify Climate Extremes in China’s Urban Agglomerations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Liu, Mengyu & Zhou, Xiong & Huang, Guohe & Li, Yongping, 2024. "The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Zhongxu Wang & Shengbo Chen & Junqiang Xu & Chao Ren & Yafeng Yu & Zibo Wang & Lei Wang & Yucheng Xu, 2024. "Integrating Ecosystem Service Assessment, Human Activity Impacts, and Priority Conservation Area Delineation into Ecological Management Frameworks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Danyang Gao & Albert S. Chen & Fayyaz Ali Memon, 2024. "A Systematic Review of Methods for Investigating Climate Change Impacts on Water-Energy-Food Nexus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-43, January.
    7. Xihui Gu & Zaiming Jiang & Yansong Guan & Ming Luo & Jianfeng Li & Lunche Wang & Xiang Zhang & Dongdong Kong & Liangyi Wang, 2025. "Frequent land-ocean transboundary migration of tropical heatwaves under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Zhou, Yang & Han, Jingcheng & Zhou, Ya, 2024. "Synergizing carbon trading and water management for urban sustainability: A city-level multi-objective planning framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    9. Ayşe Çağlıyan & Dündar Dağlı, 2022. "Monitoring Land Use Land Cover Changes and Modelling of Urban Growth Using a Future Land Use Simulation Model (FLUS) in Diyarbakır, Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    10. Yong Lai & Guangqing Huang & Shengzhong Chen & Shaotao Lin & Wenjun Lin & Jixin Lyu, 2021. "Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-24, March.
    11. Shuai, Hang & Li, Fangxing & Zhu, Jinxiang & Tingen II, William Jerome & Mukherjee, Srijib, 2024. "Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    12. Zhang, Yang & Xue, Qiang & Chen, Liu & Zhang, Jinbo & Xie, Yulei & Lu, Lu & Guo, Huaicheng & Qin, Changbo & Wang, Jinnan, 2025. "Toward the efficient and accurate management of the water-energy nexus: Optimization modeling based on urban resource metabolic mechanism identification," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    13. Yichen Zhang & Chuntao Li & Lang Zhang & Jinao Liu & Ruonan Li, 2022. "Spatial Simulation of Land-Use Development of Feixi County, China, Based on Optimized Productive–Living–Ecological Functions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-33, May.
    14. Miao Zhang & Xing Yuan & Zhenzhong Zeng & Ming Pan & Peili Wu & Jingfeng Xiao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2025. "A pronounced decline in northern vegetation resistance to flash droughts from 2001 to 2022," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Sai Hu & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Ting Zhang & Lina Yuan & Liang Cheng & Jia Wang & Mingxin Wen, 2020. "Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.
    16. Stern, Nicholas & Lankes, Hans Peter & Macquarie, Rob & Soubeyran, Éléonore, 2024. "The relationship between climate action and poverty reduction," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Lei Gu & Jiabo Yin & Pierre Gentine & Hui-Min Wang & Louise J. Slater & Sylvia C. Sullivan & Jie Chen & Jakob Zscheischler & Shenglian Guo, 2023. "Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03909-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.