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Inequality in human exposure to future climate extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei

    (Ghent University)

  • Rafiq Hamdi

    (Ghent University
    Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium)

  • Hamid Moradkhani

    (The University of Alabama
    The University of Alabama)

  • Piet Termonia

    (Ghent University
    Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium)

  • Hossein Tabari

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
    University of Antwerp
    United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH))

Abstract

Future climate extremes are expected to worsen existing inequalities in human exposure, yet the specific disparities across income groups are not well understood. We investigate how future floods, heatwaves, droughts, and compound hot-dry events will impact high- and low-income countries under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find that low-income countries are projected to experience more severe exposure to these events, primarily due to accelerated population growth rather than climate change. Exposure inequality between high- and low-income countries decreases as event severity increases, with the effects of population growth diminishing and the impact of climate change becoming more pronounced. While compound hot-dry events have a greater overall impact compared to single events, the inequality in exposure to these events is less pronounced. These findings underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies that address both demographic drivers and the spatial-temporal dynamics of extreme events to effectively manage socioeconomic risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei & Rafiq Hamdi & Hamid Moradkhani & Piet Termonia & Hossein Tabari, 2025. "Inequality in human exposure to future climate extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-63385-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63385-3
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