IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v178y2025i6d10.1007_s10584-025-03928-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global thermal bioclimate indicators: spatial shifts and temporal changes

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Magdy Hamed

    (Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT))

  • Obaidullah Salehie

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM))

  • Ali Salem Al-Sakkaf

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS)
    Yemen Meteorological Services, Civil Aviation & Meteorology Authority (CAMA))

  • Mohammed Rady

    (Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT))

  • Ahmed Abdiaziz Alasow

    (Jamhuriya University of Science & Technology)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (Al Warood District
    Al-Ayen University)

Abstract

Climate change is inducing worldwide alterations in temperature patterns, impacting biotic ecosystems. This study conducts a comprehensive spatiotemporal examination of global thermal bioclimate indicators from 1941 to 2020, using high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data. The research aimed to evaluate the global climatic shifts in the recent decades compared to a 1941–1980 baseline. To this end, Sen’s slope estimator and the modified Mann–Kendall test to analyze trends in eleven bioclimatic indicators (BIOs) on a global scale. The findings reveal a widespread warming with significant regional variability. A general global warming trend was observed, with polar regions experiencing the most temperature increases, often exceeding 2.5 °C over the study period. Strong polar amplification was particularly observed in Arctic areas, where warming rates reached up to 0.6 °C per decade. The study also identified trends toward more extreme and variable temperature conditions, with maximum temperatures of the warmest month (Bio-5) increasing by 1 °C to 3 °C in many regions. Moreover, decreases in the diurnal temperature range (Bio-2) were observed across numerous areas, with some regions showing changes of up to 1.2 °C. The research further reveals heterogeneous patterns in temperature seasonality (Bio-4), with some northern areas experiencing up to 80% decreases in this metric. These changes affect biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, agriculture, and human health, highlighting the urgent need for continued monitoring and research to address the global challenges of changing thermal conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Magdy Hamed & Obaidullah Salehie & Ali Salem Al-Sakkaf & Mohammed Rady & Ahmed Abdiaziz Alasow & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2025. "Global thermal bioclimate indicators: spatial shifts and temporal changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(6), pages 1-29, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03928-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03928-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-025-03928-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-025-03928-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Lelieveld & Y. Proestos & P. Hadjinicolaou & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & G. Zittis, 2016. "Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 245-260, July.
    2. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    3. Tjaša Pogačar & Zala Žnidaršič & Lučka Kajfež Bogataj & Andreas D. Flouris & Konstantina Poulianiti & Zalika Črepinšek, 2019. "Heat Waves Occurrence and Outdoor Workers’ Self-assessment of Heat Stress in Slovenia and Greece," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-12, February.
    4. Zhang, Yitong & Hao, Zengchao & Zhang, Yu, 2023. "Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Sahar Hadi Pour & Ahmad Khairi Abd Wahab & Shamsuddin Shahid & Xiaojun Wang, 2019. "Spatial Pattern of the Unidirectional Trends in Thermal Bioclimatic Indicators in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-24, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammed Magdy Hamed & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Tarmizi bin Ismail & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2022. "Projection of Thermal Bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris Agreement Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    3. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    4. Francesca Pilotto & Ingolf Kühn & Rita Adrian & Renate Alber & Audrey Alignier & Christopher Andrews & Jaana Bäck & Luc Barbaro & Deborah Beaumont & Natalie Beenaerts & Sue Benham & David S. Boukal & , 2020. "Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Hao Wang & Guohua Liu & Zongshan Li & Xin Ye & Bojie Fu & Yihe Lü, 2017. "Analysis of the Driving Forces in Vegetation Variation in the Grain for Green Program Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-14, October.
    6. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    7. Christina Kassara & Christos Barboutis & Anastasios Bounas, 2025. "Favorable stopover sites and fuel load dynamics of spring bird migrants under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Portalier, S.M.J. & Candau, J.-N. & Lutscher, F., 2024. "Larval mortality from phenological mismatch can affect outbreak frequency and severity of a boreal forest defoliator," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    9. A. Ogden & J. Innes, 2008. "Climate change adaptation and regional forest planning in southern Yukon, Canada," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 833-861, October.
    10. Fengchun Ye & Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & Hong Liao, 2025. "Anthropogenic forcing dominates changes in compound long-duration dry and heat extremes in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-19, February.
    11. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    12. Prem B. Parajuli & Priyantha Jayakody & Ying Ouyang, 2018. "Evaluation of Using Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration Data in SWAT," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 985-996, February.
    13. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    14. Debora Sotto & Arlindo Philippi & Tan Yigitcanlar & Md Kamruzzaman, 2019. "Aligning Urban Policy with Climate Action in the Global South: Are Brazilian Cities Considering Climate Emergency in Local Planning Practice?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-31, September.
    15. Jilin Wu & Manhong Yang & Jinyou Zuo & Ningling Yin & Yimin Yang & Wenhai Xie & Shuiliang Liu, 2024. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Ecological Resilience in Ecologically Fragile Areas and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of the Wuling Mountains Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-21, April.
    16. Mohammed Magdy Hamed & Najeebullah Khan & Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2022. "Ranking of Empirical Evapotranspiration Models in Different Climate Zones of Pakistan," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, November.
    17. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    18. A. Kosanic & S. Harrison & K. Anderson & I. Kavcic, 2014. "Present and historical climate variability in South West England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 221-237, May.
    19. Aishajiang Aili & Xu Hailiang & Abdul Waheed & Zhao Wanyu & Xu Qiao & Zhao Xinfeng & Zhang Peng, 2024. "The Dynamics of Vegetation Evapotranspiration and Its Response to Surface Meteorological Factors in the Altay Mountains, Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-19, October.
    20. Avri Eitan, 2021. "Promoting Renewable Energy to Cope with Climate Change—Policy Discourse in Israel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03928-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.