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Drivers of the pre-season drought thresholds triggering earlier autumn foliar senescence in the Northern Hemisphere

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  • Wenbo Yan

    (Yunnan University
    Yunnan University)

  • Jian Zhou

    (Yunnan University
    Yunnan University)

  • Honghong Lin

    (Yunnan University
    Yunnan University)

  • Jinyi Luo

    (Yunnan University
    Yunnan University)

  • Xingwu Duan

    (Yunnan University
    Yunnan University)

  • Ruidong Wu

    (Yunnan University
    Yunnan University)

Abstract

Global warming can postpone the autumn date of foliar senescence (DFS). Nevertheless, warming-associated droughts may induce earlier DFS. However, pre-season drought thresholds triggering an earlier DFS (PDT-DFS) are not clearly established. Using site-level DFS data since 1951, satellite-derived DFS data for 1982‒2021, and drought indices, we construct a copula-based Bayesian framework to identify the PDT-DFS over the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N). A higher probability of droughts is associated with an earlier DFS. The DFS for the

Suggested Citation

  • Wenbo Yan & Jian Zhou & Honghong Lin & Jinyi Luo & Xingwu Duan & Ruidong Wu, 2025. "Drivers of the pre-season drought thresholds triggering earlier autumn foliar senescence in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62847-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62847-y
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