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Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Torres
  • David Lapola
  • Jose Marengo
  • Magda Lombardo

Abstract

Brazil suffers yearly from extreme weather and climate events, which can be exacerbated in a warmer climate. Although several studies have analyzed the projections of climate change in Brazil, little attention has been paid to defining the locations that can be most affected, and consequently have a more vulnerable population, in a spatially-explicit form. This study presents a spatial analysis of summarized climate change data and a joint investigation combining these possible climate changes and social vulnerability indicators in Brazil. The Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), which can synthesize a large number of climate model projections, is used for the climate analysis, and the Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index (SCVI) is proposed to aggregate local population vulnerabilities to the climate change information. The RCCI results show climatic hotspots emerging in Brazil, covering the western portion of the Northeast (NE), northwestern Minas Gerais state and center-western (CW) and northern regions (N), except northeast Pará and Amapá states. The SCVI analysis reveals major socio-climatic hotspots in the NE and several localized hotspots in some of the major Brazilian metropolitan regions, namely Manaus, Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. The two novelties of this study are a spatially detailed analysis of the RCCI in Brazil and the development of an index that can summarize the large amount of climate model information available today with social vulnerability indicators. Both indices may be important tools for improving the dialogue between climate and social scientists and for communicating climate change to policymakers in a more synthetic and socially relevant form. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Torres & David Lapola & Jose Marengo & Magda Lombardo, 2012. "Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 597-609, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:597-609
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0461-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eduardo Alves Neder & Fabiano Araújo Moreira & Michele Dalla Fontana & Roger Rodrigues Torres & David Montenegro Lapola & Maria da Penha Costa Vasconcellos & Ana Maria Barbieri Bedran-Martins & Arlind, 2021. "Urban adaptation index: assessing cities readiness to deal with climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Claudio Szlafsztein, 2014. "Development projects for small rural communities in the Brazilian Amazon region as potential strategies and practices of climate change adaptation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 143-160, February.
    3. David M. Lapola & Diego R. Braga & Gabriela M. Di Giulio & Roger R. Torres & Maria P. Vasconcellos, 2019. "Heat stress vulnerability and risk at the (super) local scale in six Brazilian capitals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 477-492, June.
    4. Alex Sherbinin, 2014. "Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 23-37, March.
    5. Pablo Borges de Amorim & Pedro B. Chaffe, 2019. "Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 37-57, July.
    6. Júlia Alves Menezes & Ulisses Confalonieri & Ana Paula Madureira & Isabela de Brito Duval & Rhavena Barbosa dos Santos & Carina Margonari, 2018. "Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, February.

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