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Heat stress vulnerability and risk at the (super) local scale in six Brazilian capitals

Author

Listed:
  • David M. Lapola

    (University of Campinas)

  • Diego R. Braga

    (University of Campinas)

  • Gabriela M. Di Giulio

    (University of Sao Paulo)

  • Roger R. Torres

    (Federal University of Itajubá)

  • Maria P. Vasconcellos

    (University of Sao Paulo)

Abstract

Brazilian cities host 86% of the country’s population and have been more intensely hit by rising temperatures than the average of cities across the world over the last century. Nevertheless, assessments of the vulnerability of Brazilian urban dwellers to urban heat islands (UHI) are scarce. In this study, we take advantage of the availability of high-resolution data to calculate the heat stress vulnerability and risk indexes (HSVI and HSRI, respectively) for people inhabiting six Brazilian metropolitan areas—Manaus, Natal, Vitória, São Paulo, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre. The indexes are calculated by mathematically relating indicators of exposure (distribution of >65-year-old elderly people), sensitivity/adaptive capacity (human development index, HDI), and hazard (surface temperature). The resulting HSVI maps reflect the socioeconomic (HDI) differences found among the studied cities, with the most vulnerable people located in the poorest neighborhoods in Manaus (0.720) and Natal (0.733), distributed among lower- and mid-class zones in São Paulo (0.794) and Vitória (0.772), or invariably located in the wealthy zones of Curitiba (0.783) and Porto Alegre (0.762). Two distinct patterns are identified for the HSRI: in São Paulo, Vitória, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre, high and very high risks are found in the wealthy zones of the cities, whereas in Natal and Manaus, high and very high risks are encountered in the poorly developed city zones, a result that was strongly driven by the UHI pattern. Better communication of heat stress risk and the improvement of city greenness should be the focus of near-term adaptation strategies for the mapped vulnerable population.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Lapola & Diego R. Braga & Gabriela M. Di Giulio & Roger R. Torres & Maria P. Vasconcellos, 2019. "Heat stress vulnerability and risk at the (super) local scale in six Brazilian capitals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 477-492, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02459-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02459-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E. Scott Krayenhoff & Mohamed Moustaoui & Ashley M. Broadbent & Vishesh Gupta & Matei Georgescu, 2018. "Diurnal interaction between urban expansion, climate change and adaptation in US cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1097-1103, December.
    2. Roger Torres & David Lapola & Jose Marengo & Magda Lombardo, 2012. "Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 597-609, December.
    3. Harlan, Sharon L. & Brazel, Anthony J. & Prashad, Lela & Stefanov, William L. & Larsen, Larissa, 2006. "Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(11), pages 2847-2863, December.
    4. Maria Carmen Lemos & Christine J. Kirchhoff & Vijay Ramprasad, 2012. "Narrowing the climate information usability gap," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 789-794, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Denis Maragno & Michele Dalla Fontana & Francesco Musco, 2020. "Mapping Heat Stress Vulnerability and Risk Assessment at the Neighborhood Scale to Drive Urban Adaptation Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Marina Ziliotto & José Artur Bogo Chies & Joel Henrique Ellwanger, 2024. "Environmental Sanitation in Porto Alegre City, Brazil: A Basic Step towards Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Meen Wook Jung & Mônica A Haddad & Brian K Gelder, 2024. "Examining heat inequity in a Brazilian metropolitan region," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 51(1), pages 109-127, January.
    4. Dechao Chen & Xinliang Xu & Zongyao Sun & Luo Liu & Zhi Qiao & Tai Huang, 2019. "Assessment of Urban Heat Risk in Mountain Environments: A Case Study of Chongqing Metropolitan Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.

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