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Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting future weather types and heat events

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  • Scott Sheridan
  • Cameron Lee
  • Michael Allen
  • Laurence Kalkstein

Abstract

Excessive heat significantly impacts the health of Californians during irregular but intense heat events. Through the 21st century, a significant increase in impact is likely, as the state experiences a changing climate as well as an aging population. To assess this impact, future heat-related mortality estimates were derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Here in Part I, changes in oppressive weather days and consecutive-day events are projected for future years by a synoptic climatological method. First, historical surface weather types are related to circulation patterns at 500mb and 700mb, and temperature patterns at 850mb. GCM output is then utilized to classify future circulation patterns via discriminant function analysis, and multinomial logistic regression is used to derive future surface weather type at each of six stations in California. Five different climate model-scenarios are examined. Results show a significant increase in heat events over the 21st century, with oppressive weather types potentially more than doubling in frequency, and with heat events of 2 weeks or longer becoming up to ten times more common at coastal locations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

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  • Scott Sheridan & Cameron Lee & Michael Allen & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting future weather types and heat events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 291-309, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:291-309
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0436-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott Sheridan & Adam Kalkstein, 2010. "Seasonal variability in heat-related mortality across the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(2), pages 291-305, November.
    2. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
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    1. Gino D. Marinucci & George Luber & Christopher K. Uejio & Shubhayu Saha & Jeremy J. Hess, 2014. "Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, June.
    2. Andrew M Fraser & Mikhail V Chester & David Eisenman & David M Hondula & Stephanie S Pincetl & Paul English & Emily Bondank, 2017. "Household accessibility to heat refuges: Residential air conditioning, public cooled space, and walkability," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(6), pages 1036-1055, November.
    3. W. J. W. Botzen & M. L. Martinius & P. Bröde & M. A. Folkerts & P. Ignjacevic & F. Estrada & C. N. Harmsen & H. A. M. Daanen, 2020. "Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 545-562, September.
    4. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Junzhe Bao & Xudong Li & Chuanhua Yu, 2015. "The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, June.
    6. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
    7. Kevin Riley & Holly Wilhalme & Linda Delp & David P. Eisenman, 2018. "Mortality and Morbidity during Extreme Heat Events and Prevalence of Outdoor Work: An Analysis of Community-Level Data from Los Angeles County, California," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, March.

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