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Optimal control models: exploring the limits of predictive power

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  • Dieter Graß

    (Vienna University of Technology
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

This paper examines the application of optimal control models across disciplines, highlighting both their strengths and limitations. While these models are valuable tools in biological and socio-economic contexts, their use requires careful consideration of inherent constraints. A key advantage of such models is their ability to facilitate structural analysis. The second part of the study focuses on the continuation algorithm and its role in understanding dynamic optimization. Through two examples, the paper illustrates this approach and emphasizes the need for a critical perspective, especially when modeling human behavior and interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieter Graß, 2025. "Optimal control models: exploring the limits of predictive power," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 33(2), pages 609-630, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:33:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10100-025-00983-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-025-00983-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tatiana Kiseleva & Florian Wagener, 2015. "Bifurcations of Optimal Vector Fields," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(1), pages 24-55, February.
    2. Doris A. Behrens & Jonathan P. Caulkins & Gernot Tragler & Gustav Feichtinger, 2000. "Optimal Control of Drug Epidemics: Prevent and Treat---But Not at the Same Time?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 333-347, March.
    3. Jonathan Caulkins & Dieter Grass & Gustav Feichtinger & Richard Hartl & Peter M Kort & Alexia Prskawetz & Andrea Seidl & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2020. "How long should the COVID-19 lockdown continue?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Behrens, Doris A. & Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Tragler, Gernot & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2002. "Why present-oriented societies undergo cycles of drug epidemics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 919-936, June.
    5. Grass, D., 2012. "Numerical computation of the optimal vector field: Exemplified by a fishery model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1626-1658.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gustav Feichtinger & Christophe Deissenberg & Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger, 2025. "George Leitmann’s 100th birthday," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 33(2), pages 333-344, June.

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