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Die Prognose von Studienerfolg und Studienabbruch auf Basis von Umfrage- und administrativen Prüfungsdaten

Author

Listed:
  • Sören Pannier

    (Freie Universität Berlin)

  • Ulrich Rendtel

    (Freie Universität Berlin)

  • Hartmut Gerks

    (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die Messung von Studienerfolg bzw. Studienabbruch erfolgt häufig retrospektiv anhand von Exmatrikulierten-Befragungen. Diese Erhebungen sind jedoch mit hohen Nonresponse-Raten verknüpft. Auch die retrospektive Selbsteinschätzung unterliegt Erinnerungsfehlern. Alternativ findet man auch prospektive Ansätze im Rahmen von Panelerhebungen, die jedoch von Stichprobenausfällen zwischen den Befragungswellen betroffen sind. Dieser Artikel präsentiert einen neuen prospektiven Ansatz auf Basis von administrativen Prüfungsdaten und Umfragedaten. Hintergrundinformationen über die Studierenden werden zu Beginn des zweiten Fachsemesters im Rahmen einer Hörsaalbefragung erhoben. Die notwendige Einwilligung der Studierenden zur Verknüpfung mit den Prüfungsdaten wird fast immer erreicht, so dass der Einfluss von Hintergrundmerkmalen, Nebentätigkeit während des Studiums sowie der Studienmotivation auf den Studienabschluss ohne Stichprobenausfälle analysiert werden kann. Dieser Ansatz wurde erstmalig am Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft der FU Berlin realisiert. Der Aufsatz beschreibt die Durchführung dieses Konzepts sowie Analyseergebnisse für den Studienverlauf und Studienabbrüche. Im Ergebnis erhalten wir, dass sich ein Studienabbruch schon in der Studieneingangsphase anhand der erworbenen Leistungspunkte und der Selbsteinschätzung der Studierenden sehr genau vorhersagen lässt. Hingegen liefern die Schulnote und die sozialen Hintergrundmerkmale keine zusätzliche Information für einen Studienabbruch.

Suggested Citation

  • Sören Pannier & Ulrich Rendtel & Hartmut Gerks, 2020. "Die Prognose von Studienerfolg und Studienabbruch auf Basis von Umfrage- und administrativen Prüfungsdaten," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 14(3), pages 225-266, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:14:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11943-020-00278-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-020-00278-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rendtel, Ulrich & Basic, Edin, 2007. "Assessing the bias due to non-coverage of residential movers in the German microcensus panel: an evaluation using data from the socio-economic panel," Discussion Papers 2007/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Oliver Himmler & Robert Jäckle & Philipp Weinschenk, 2019. "Soft Commitments, Reminders, and Academic Performance," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 114-142, April.
    3. Edin Basic & Ulrich Rendtel, 2007. "Assessing the bias due to non-coverage of residential movers in the German Microcensus Panel: an evaluation using data from the Socio-Economic Panel," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 91(3), pages 311-334, October.
    4. Kamila Danilowicz-Gösele & Katharina Lerche & Johannes Meya & Robert Schwager, 2017. "Determinants of students' success at university," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 513-532, September.
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