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A joint Bayesian spatiotemporal risk prediction model of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, and death with application to Sweden

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  • I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya

    (University of Groningen
    Padjadjaran University)

  • Henk Folmer

    (University of Groningen
    Padjadjaran University)

  • Johan Lundberg

    (Umeå University)

Abstract

The three closely related COVID-19 outcomes of incidence, intensive care (IC) admission and death, are commonly modelled separately leading to biased estimation of the parameters and relatively poor forecasts. This paper presents a joint spatiotemporal model of the three outcomes based on weekly data that is used for risk prediction and identification of hotspots. The paper applies a pure spatiotemporal model consisting of structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects and their interaction capturing the effects of the unobserved covariates. The pure spatiotemporal model limits the data requirements to the three outcomes and the population at risk per spatiotemporal unit. The empirical study for the 21 Swedish regions for the period 1 January 2020–4 May 2021 confirms that the joint model predictions outperform the separate model predictions. The fifteen-week-ahead spatiotemporal forecasts (5 May–11 August 2021) show a significant decline in the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, death and number of hotspots.

Suggested Citation

  • I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya & Henk Folmer & Johan Lundberg, 2024. "A joint Bayesian spatiotemporal risk prediction model of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, and death with application to Sweden," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(1), pages 107-140, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:72:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-022-01191-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01191-1
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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