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Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting and mapping of COVID‐19 risk with application to West Java Province, Indonesia

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  • I. Gede Nyoman M. Jaya
  • Henk Folmer

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) has spread rapidly to multiple countries including Indonesia. Mapping its spatiotemporal pattern and forecasting (small area) outbreaks are crucial for containment and mitigation strategies. Hence, we introduce a parsimonious space–time model of new infections that yields accurate forecasts but only requires information regarding the number of incidences and population size per geographical unit and time period. Model parsimony is important because of limited knowledge regarding the causes of COVID‐19 and the need for rapid action to control outbreaks. We outline the basics of Bayesian estimation, forecasting, and mapping, in particular for the identification of hotspots. The methodology is applied to county‐level data of West Java Province, Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • I. Gede Nyoman M. Jaya & Henk Folmer, 2021. "Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting and mapping of COVID‐19 risk with application to West Java Province, Indonesia," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 849-881, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:61:y:2021:i:4:p:849-881
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12533
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    2. Laura Serra & Claudio Detotto & Pablo Juan & Marco Vannini, 2022. "Intersectoral and spatial spill-overs of firms’ bankruptcy in Spain," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 197-211, August.
    3. Laura Serra & Claudio Detotto & Marco Vannini, 2022. "Public lands as a mitigator of wildfire burned area using a spatio-temporal model applied in Sardinia," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 621-635, December.
    4. Nushrat Nazia & Zahid Ahmad Butt & Melanie Lyn Bedard & Wang-Choi Tang & Hibah Sehar & Jane Law, 2022. "Methods Used in the Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemiology: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-28, July.
    5. Sui Zhang & Minghao Wang & Zhao Yang & Baolei Zhang, 2021. "A Novel Predictor for Micro-Scale COVID-19 Risk Modeling: An Empirical Study from a Spatiotemporal Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-16, December.

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