IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v313y2022i1d10.1007_s10479-021-04511-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dependence structure between Indian financial market and energy commodities: a cross-quantilogram based evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Avik Sinha

    (Goa Institute of Management)

  • Arshian Sharif

    (UCSI University)

  • Arnab Adhikari

    (Indian Institute of Management Ranchi)

  • Ankit Sharma

    (Chandragupt Institute of Management Patna)

Abstract

Given the developing nations are moving towards attaining the sustainable energy future, the reliance on renewable energy solutions is rising. Therefore, the dependence on traditional fossil fuel-based solutions is getting reduced, and this might have an impact on the energy market commodities. Analyzing this impact might divulge several insights regarding the portfolio decisions, in presence of the transformations in developmental trajectory. In this study, we analyze the cross-quantile dependence of the returns on the energy market commodities and the market returns for Indian financial market over July 31, 2008 to March 31, 2020. For this purpose, we adopt a novel three-stage methodology comprising Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH, Cross-quantilogram, and Wavelet Coherence-based models. We find that the market returns have negative effect on returns on the energy market commodities. This impact has been found to be asymmetric in nature. Moreover, the moderating impact of policy uncertainty has been analyzed has been analyzed through partial cross-quantilogram approach, and the outcome shows that the impact remains same under extreme market conditions. The findings have significant portfolio decisions in an energy transition context.

Suggested Citation

  • Avik Sinha & Arshian Sharif & Arnab Adhikari & Ankit Sharma, 2022. "Dependence structure between Indian financial market and energy commodities: a cross-quantilogram based evidence," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 257-287, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:313:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04511-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04511-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-021-04511-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-021-04511-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Naveed Raza & David Roubaud, 2019. "Asymmetric impacts of disaggregated oil price shocks on uncertainties and investor sentiment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 901-921, April.
    2. Lei, Likun & Shang, Yue & Chen, Yongfei & Wei, Yu, 2019. "Does the financial crisis change the economic risk perception of crude oil traders? A MIDAS quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 341-351.
    3. Yao, Can-Zhong & Sun, Bo-Yi, 2018. "The study on the tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty and several financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-265.
    4. Han, Heejoon & Linton, Oliver & Oka, Tatsushi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2016. "The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 251-270.
    5. Feng Ma & M. I. M. Wahab & Jing Liu & Li Liu, 2018. "Is economic policy uncertainty important to forecast the realized volatility of crude oil futures?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(18), pages 2087-2101, April.
    6. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Panagiotakopoulou, Sofia, 2018. "Oil price shocks and uncertainty: How stable is their relationship over time?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 42-53.
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "The influence of the international oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in Romania in a wavelet transform framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 714-733.
    8. Kim, Jae H. & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2019. "Can energy prices predict stock returns? An extreme bounds analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 822-834.
    9. Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Donald Lien, 2019. "Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 366-383, March.
    10. Cevik, Nuket Kirci & Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel, 2020. "Oil prices, stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 597-614.
    11. Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock-commodity correlations and its implications on optimal hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Andreasson, Pierre & Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Impact of speculation and economic uncertainty on commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 115-127.
    13. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios & Ahmed, Ali, 2018. "The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 30-39.
    14. Xiuwen Chen & Xiaolei Sun & Jun Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Spillover Effect Between Oil Prices and Economic Policy Uncertainty in BRIC Countries: A Wavelet-Based Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(12), pages 2703-2717, September.
    15. Linton, O. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "The quantilogram: With an application to evaluating directional predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 250-282, November.
    16. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Eapen, Leena Mary & Nair, Sthanu R, 2021. "Electricity consumption and economic growth at the state and sectoral level in India: Evidence using heterogeneous panel data methods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Erhan Artuc & Gladys Lopez-Acevedo & Raymond Robertson & Daniel Samaan, 2019. "Exports to Jobs," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 31274, December.
    19. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.
    20. Huiming Zhu & Rui Huang & Ningli Wang & Liya Hau, 2020. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for commodity market in China? Evidence from quantile regression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(21), pages 2292-2308, May.
    21. Sinha, Avik, 2017. "Examination of oil import-exchange nexus for India after currency crisis," MPRA Paper 100359, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    23. Mehmet Balcilar & Stelios Bekiros & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The role of news-based uncertainty indices in predicting oil markets: a hybrid nonparametric quantile causality method," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 879-889, November.
    24. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2018. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns of the GCC countries: empirical evidence from quantile regression analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 339-372, November.
    25. Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Xiuwen & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Multi-scale interactions between economic policy uncertainty and oil prices in time-frequency domains," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    26. Reboredo, Juan C. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Do financial stress and policy uncertainty have an impact on the energy and metals markets? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-298.
    27. Ewing, Bradley T. & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2018. "The dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the US stock market returns of upstream oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 505-516.
    28. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sharma, Rajesh & Sinha, Avik & Jiao, Zhilun, 2021. "Analyzing nonlinear impact of economic growth drivers on CO2 emissions: Designing an SDG framework for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    29. Aloui, Riadh & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2016. "Uncertainty and crude oil returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 92-100.
    30. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2020. "Risk appetite and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    31. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Ahmed, Ali, 2019. "Cross-quantilogram-based correlation and dependence between renewable energy stock and other asset classes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 743-759.
    32. Imlak Shaikh, 2019. "On the Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Implied Volatility Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-11, March.
    33. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    34. Todorova, Neda, 2017. "The intraday directional predictability of large Australian stocks: A cross-quantilogram analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 221-230.
    35. Zhang, Dayong & Lei, Lei & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 47-56.
    36. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2021. "Testing directional predictability between energy prices: A quantile-based analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    37. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Nehler, Henrik & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-126.
    38. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Xu, Deyi & Sheraz, Muhammad & Hassan, Arshad & Sinha, Avik & Ullah, Saif, 2022. "Financial development, renewable energy and CO2 emission in G7 countries: New evidence from non-linear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Thobekile Qabhobho & Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei & Peterson Owusu Junior & Anokye M. Adam, 2022. "Quantifying information transfer between Commodities and Implied Volatilities in the Energy Markets: A Multi-frequency Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 472-481, September.
    4. Mohammad Aladwan & Mohammaad Almaharmeh & Husni Samara, 2023. "Modeling and Mediating the Interaction between Oil Prices and Economic Sectors Advancement: The Case of Middle East," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 51-60, March.
    5. Madurai Elavarasan, Rajvikram & Nadarajah, Mithulananthan & Pugazhendhi, Rishi & Sinha, Avik & Gangatharan, Sivasankar & Chiaramonti, David & Abou Houran, Mohamad, 2023. "The untold subtlety of energy consumption and its influence on policy drive towards Sustainable Development Goal 7," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    6. Abbas, Shujaat & Sinha, Avik & Saha, Tanaya & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2023. "Response of mineral market to renewable energy production in the USA: Where lies the sustainable energy future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Rabin K. Jana & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Claudiu Albulescu, 2022. "Financial modeling, risk management of energy and environmental instruments and derivatives: past, present, and future," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 1-7, June.
    8. Armenia Androniceanu & Oana Matilda Sabie, 2022. "Overview of Green Energy as a Real Strategic Option for Sustainable Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-35, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sheng Cheng & Wei Liu & Qisheng Jiang & Yan Cao, 2023. "Multi–Scale Risk Connectedness Between Economic Policy Uncertainty of China and Global Oil Prices in Time–Frequency Domains," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1593-1616, April.
    2. Yang, Kun & Wei, Yu & Li, Shouwei & Liu, Liang & Wang, Lei, 2021. "Global financial uncertainties and China’s crude oil futures market: Evidence from interday and intraday price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Wang, Yilei & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to the global oil price fluctuations? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Ruixin Su & Jianguo Du & Fakhar Shahzad & Xingle Long, 2020. "Unveiling the Effect of Mean and Volatility Spillover between the United States Economic Policy Uncertainty and WTI Crude Oil Price," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-12, August.
    5. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yan, Xing-Xing, 2020. "The impact of US economic policy uncertainty on WTI crude oil returns in different time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 750-768.
    6. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Yu, Yang & Yu, Dongwei, 2022. "Time-frequency coherence and quantile causality between trade policy uncertainty and rare earth prices: Evidence from China and the US," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Awasthi, Kritika & Ahmad, Wasim & Rahman, Abdul & Phani, B.V., 2020. "When US sneezes, clichés spread: How do the commodity index funds react then?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Hao, Lin-Na & Tao, Ran, 2020. "The stability of U.S. economic policy: Does it really matter for oil price?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    10. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Demirer, Riza & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Does the U.S. economic policy uncertainty connect financial markets? Evidence from oil and commodity currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 375-388.
    11. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, speculation, and energy futures returns: Evidence from a quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    12. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Weiyan & Hau, Liya & Chen, Qitong, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness of crude oil, economic policy uncertainty and Chinese commodity markets: Evidence from rolling window analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Economic uncertainty shocks and China's commodity futures returns: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Mokni, Khaled & Al-Shboul, Mohammed & Assaf, Ata, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and dynamic spillover among precious metals under market conditions: Does COVID-19 have any effects?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Urom, C. & Mzoughi, Hela & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, K., 2022. "Dynamic dependence between clean investments and economic policy uncertainty," MERIT Working Papers 2022-027, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    17. Kumar, Satish & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk improve the directional predictability from oil to stock returns? Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Yilmaz, Tolgahan, 2010. "Improving Portfolio Optimization by DCC And DECO GARCH: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 27314, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    20. Lin, Boqiang & Bai, Rui, 2021. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    India; Energy market commodity; Cross-quantilogram; Uncertainty; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:313:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04511-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.