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Detecting nuclear materials smuggling: using radiography to improve container inspection policies

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  • Gary Gaukler
  • Chenhua Li
  • Rory Cannaday
  • Sunil Chirayath
  • Yu Ding

Abstract

This paper proposes a layered container inspection system for detecting illicit nuclear materials using radiography information. We argue that the current inspection system, relying heavily on the Automated Targeting System (ATS) and passive radiation detectors, is inherently incapable of reliably detecting shielded radioactive materials, especially highly enriched uranium (HEU). This motivates the development of a new inspection system, which is designed to address a fundamental flaw of the ATS-based system, allowing for improved defense against sophisticated adversaries. In the proposed inspection system, all cargo containers go through x-ray imaging equipment first. From the x-ray image, a hardness measure of the container is computed. This hardness measure characterizes how likely it is that shielded HEU, if it does exist in the container, will not be detected in a subsequent passive detection step. Depending on the value of the hardness, the lower-hardness containers are sent to passive detection and the high-hardness containers are sent directly to active detection. This paper explores the trade-off between the detection probability of the new inspection system and the expected sojourn time a container spends in the system. The solution details and decision-making tools for using such a system are provided. Comparisons are made between the proposed system and the current ATS-based nuclear inspection system. Copyright US Government 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Gaukler & Chenhua Li & Rory Cannaday & Sunil Chirayath & Yu Ding, 2011. "Detecting nuclear materials smuggling: using radiography to improve container inspection policies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 65-87, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:187:y:2011:i:1:p:65-87:10.1007/s10479-010-0717-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-010-0717-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John E. Kobza & Sheldon H. Jacobson, 1996. "Addressing the Dependency Problem in Access Security System Architecture Design," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(6), pages 801-812, December.
    2. Lawrence M. Wein & Alex H. Wilkins & Manas Baveja & Stephen E. Flynn, 2006. "Preventing the Importation of Illicit Nuclear Materials in Shipping Containers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1377-1393, October.
    3. Moffitt L. Joe & Stranlund John K. & Field Barry C., 2005. "Inspections to Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chenhua Li & Gary M. Gaukler & Yu Ding, 2013. "Using container inspection history to improve interdiction logistics for illicit nuclear materials," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(6), pages 433-448, September.
    2. Gary M. Gaukler & Chenhua Li & Yu Ding & Sunil S. Chirayath, 2012. "Detecting Nuclear Materials Smuggling: Performance Evaluation of Container Inspection Policies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 531-554, March.
    3. Samrat Chatterjee & Daniel E. Salazar & Isaac Maya, 2014. "A Systems Approach for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Radiological and Nuclear Detection Architectures in Urban Areas," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 157-165, June.
    4. McLay, Laura A. & Dreiding, Rebecca, 2012. "Multilevel, threshold-based policies for cargo container security screening systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 522-529.
    5. Song, Cen & Zhuang, Jun, 2017. "N-stage security screening strategies in the face of strategic applicants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 292-301.
    6. Dreiding, Rebecca A. & McLay, Laura A., 2013. "An integrated model for screening cargo containers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 181-189.

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