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Preventing the Importation of Illicit Nuclear Materials in Shipping Containers

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  • Lawrence M. Wein
  • Alex H. Wilkins
  • Manas Baveja
  • Stephen E. Flynn

Abstract

We develop a mathematical model to find the optimal inspection strategy for detecting a nuclear weapon (or nuclear material to make a weapon) from being smuggled into the United States in a shipping container, subject to constraints of port congestion and an overall budget. We consider an 11‐layer security system consisting of shipper certification, container seals, and a targeting software system, followed by passive (neutron and gamma), active (gamma radiography), and manual testing at overseas and domestic ports. Currently implemented policies achieve a low detection probability, and improved security requires passive and active testing of trusted containers and manually opening containers that cannot be penetrated by radiography. The annual cost of achieving a high detection probability of a plutonium weapon using existing equipment in traditional ways is roughly several billion dollars if testing is done domestically, and is approximately five times higher if testing is performed overseas. Our results suggest that employing high‐energy x‐ray radiography and elongating the passive neutron tests at overseas ports may provide significant cost savings, and several developing technologies, radiation sensors inside containers and tamper‐resistant electronic seals, should be pursued aggressively. Further effort is critically needed to develop a practical neutron interrogation scheme that reliably detects moderately shielded, highly enriched uranium.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence M. Wein & Alex H. Wilkins & Manas Baveja & Stephen E. Flynn, 2006. "Preventing the Importation of Illicit Nuclear Materials in Shipping Containers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1377-1393, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:5:p:1377-1393
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00817.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Pourakbar, M. & Zuidwijk, R.A., 2018. "The role of customs in securing containerized global supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(1), pages 331-340.
    2. Nedialko Dimitrov & Dennis Michalopoulos & David Morton & Michael Nehme & Feng Pan & Elmira Popova & Erich Schneider & Gregory Thoreson, 2011. "Network deployment of radiation detectors with physics-based detection probability calculations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 207-228, July.
    3. Chenhua Li & Gary M. Gaukler & Yu Ding, 2013. "Using container inspection history to improve interdiction logistics for illicit nuclear materials," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(6), pages 433-448, September.
    4. Ana Concho & José Ramirez-Marquez, 2012. "Optimal design of container inspection strategies considering multiple objectives via an evolutionary approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 167-187, July.
    5. Gary M. Gaukler & Chenhua Li & Yu Ding & Sunil S. Chirayath, 2012. "Detecting Nuclear Materials Smuggling: Performance Evaluation of Container Inspection Policies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 531-554, March.
    6. Yada Zhu & Mingyu Li & Christina Young & Minge Xie & Elsayed Elsayed, 2011. "Impact of measurement error on container inspection policies at port-of-entry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 23-43, July.
    7. Naraphorn Haphuriwat & Vicki M. Bier & Henry H. Willis, 2011. "Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 88-102, June.
    8. Vicki Bier & Naraphorn Haphuriwat, 2011. "Analytical method to identify the number of containers to inspect at U.S. ports to deter terrorist attacks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 137-158, July.
    9. Lawrence M. Wein, 2009. "OR Forum---Homeland Security: From Mathematical Models to Policy Implementation: The 2008 Philip McCord Morse Lecture," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(4), pages 801-811, August.
    10. Henry H. Willis & Tom LaTourrette, 2008. "Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit‐Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 325-339, April.
    11. Gary Gaukler & Chenhua Li & Rory Cannaday & Sunil Chirayath & Yu Ding, 2011. "Detecting nuclear materials smuggling: using radiography to improve container inspection policies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 65-87, July.
    12. Nagurney, Anna & Shukla, Shivani & Nagurney, Ladimer S. & Saberi, Sara, 2018. "A game theory model for freight service provision security investments for high-value cargo," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 21-28.
    13. Niyazi Bakır, 2011. "A Stackelberg game model for resource allocation in cargo container security," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 5-22, July.
    14. Michael P. Atkinson & Lawrence M. Wein, 2008. "TECHNICAL NOTE---Spatial Queueing Analysis of an Interdiction System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 247-254, February.
    15. Laura McLay & Jamie Lloyd & Emily Niman, 2011. "Interdicting nuclear material on cargo containers using knapsack problem models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 185-205, July.
    16. Stuart Van Weele & Jose Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, 2012. "Optimization of inspection for dual contraband using a genetic algorithm," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(5), pages 508-525, October.
    17. Michael P. Atkinson & Zheng Cao & Lawrence M. Wein, 2008. "Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 353-371, April.
    18. Bakker, Craig & Webster, Jennifer B. & Nowak, Kathleen E. & Chatterjee, Samrat & Perkins, Casey J. & Brigantic, Robert, 2020. "Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    19. David Madigan & Sushil Mittal & Fred Roberts, 2011. "Efficient sequential decision‐making algorithms for container inspection operations," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(7), pages 637-654, October.

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