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Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack

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  • Michael P. Atkinson
  • Zheng Cao
  • Lawrence M. Wein

Abstract

We formulate and analyze an optimal stopping problem concerning a terrorist who is attempting to drive a nuclear or radiological weapon toward a target in a city center. In our model, the terrorist needs to travel through a two‐dimensional lattice containing imperfect radiation sensors at some of the nodes, and decides at each node whether to detonate the bomb or proceed. We consider five different scenarios containing various informational structures and two different sensor array topologies: the sensors are placed randomly or they form an outer wall around the periphery of the city. We find that sensors can act as a deterrent in some cases, and that the government prefers the outer wall topology unless the sensors have a very low detection probability and the budget is tight (so that they are sparsely deployed).

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Atkinson & Zheng Cao & Lawrence M. Wein, 2008. "Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 353-371, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:2:p:353-371
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01023.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vicki M. Bier, 2007. "Choosing What to Protect," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 607-620, June.
    2. Lawrence M. Wein & Alex H. Wilkins & Manas Baveja & Stephen E. Flynn, 2006. "Preventing the Importation of Illicit Nuclear Materials in Shipping Containers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1377-1393, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary M. Gaukler & Chenhua Li & Yu Ding & Sunil S. Chirayath, 2012. "Detecting Nuclear Materials Smuggling: Performance Evaluation of Container Inspection Policies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 531-554, March.
    2. Samrat Chatterjee & Daniel E. Salazar & Isaac Maya, 2014. "A Systems Approach for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Radiological and Nuclear Detection Architectures in Urban Areas," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 157-165, June.
    3. Michael P. Atkinson & Lawrence M. Wein, 2008. "TECHNICAL NOTE---Spatial Queueing Analysis of an Interdiction System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 247-254, February.
    4. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi, 2020. "Prevention of Terrorism–An Assessment of Prior POM Work and Future Potentials," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1789-1815, July.
    5. Duncan A. Robertson, 2019. "Spatial Transmission Models: A Taxonomy and Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 225-243, January.

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