Analysis of Inter- and Intra-Municipal Population Mobility Using Nighttime Lights (DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS): Methodological Application to the Case of Hurricane Otis in Guerrero

The use of nighttime lights as a proxy for human mobility is a complementary tool for understanding and monitoring population flows at the microrregional level. Data obtained through the DMSP/OLS (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System) and NPP/VIIRS (National Polar-orbiting Partnership/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) sensors allow for precise observation of nighttime luminosity from a geographical perspective, which has been correlated with population density to analyze spatial-temporal patterns of inter- and intra-municipal population flows in the state of Guerrero. The methodology estimates short-term population migration in two scenarios: before and after Hurricane Otis, and at different levels of geographic disaggregation. The results show a significant impact on population mobility flows due to the hurricane, evidenced by the decrease in nighttime lights in coastal municipalities compared to those in the interior of the state. Specifically, the model predicts that the most affected coastal municipalities, such as Petatlán, Acapulco de Juárez, Tecpan de Galeana, Benito Juárez, and Coyuca de Benítez, experienced a combined population decrease estimated between 11,886 and 12,621 people.