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What Affects Transit Ridership? A Dynamic Analysis involving Multiple Factors, Lags and Asymmetric Behaviour

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  • Cynthia Chen
  • Don Varley
  • Jason Chen

Abstract

This study seeks to determine the relative impacts of various factors in affecting ridership, to quantify their short-run and long-run effects, and to test the symmetry in ridership in response to rises and falls in gasoline price and transit fare. The results show that the effect of gasoline price, albeit small, is significant, extends over a year and mainly derives from its rise not fall. Fare is most influential both in terms of short-term and long-term elasticities and its effect is largely contributed by fare increases. The combination of these two results points to the policy of increasing gasoline price over decreasing transit fare to encourage ridership. On the relationship between service and fare, the results support the ‘demand follows supply’ hypothesis. The results also provide empirical evidence that ridership responds differentially between a rise and a fall in gasoline price or transit fare.

Suggested Citation

  • Cynthia Chen & Don Varley & Jason Chen, 2011. "What Affects Transit Ridership? A Dynamic Analysis involving Multiple Factors, Lags and Asymmetric Behaviour," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(9), pages 1893-1908, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:48:y:2011:i:9:p:1893-1908
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098010379280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Simon J. Berrebi & Kari E. Watkins, 2020. "Whos Ditching the Bus?," Papers 2001.02200, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    4. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Milioti, Christina & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2015. "Modelling spillover effects of public transportation means: An intra-modal GVAR approach for Athens," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Chakour, Vincent & Eluru, Naveen, 2016. "Examining the influence of stop level infrastructure and built environment on bus ridership in Montreal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 205-217.
    7. Milioti, Christina P. & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2014. "Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens, Greece," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 88-95.
    8. Tu, Wei & Cao, Rui & Yue, Yang & Zhou, Baoding & Li, Qiuping & Li, Qingquan, 2018. "Spatial variations in urban public ridership derived from GPS trajectories and smart card data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 45-57.
    9. Ahmed Daqrouq & Ardeshir Anjomani, 2019. "Public Transit Ridership and Car-Oriented Cities: The Case of the Dallas Region," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Ottosson, Dadi Baldur & Chen, Cynthia & Wang, Tingting & Lin, Haiyun, 2013. "The sensitivity of on-street parking demand in response to price changes: A case study in Seattle, WA," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 222-232.
    11. Smart, Michael J., 2014. "A volatile relationship: The effect of changing gasoline prices on public support for mass transit," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 178-185.
    12. De Vos, Jonas, 2018. "Do people travel with their preferred travel mode? Analysing the extent of travel mode dissonance and its effect on travel satisfaction," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 261-274.

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