IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v22y2016i4p699-714.html

Tourism growth and regional resilience

Author

Listed:
  • João Romão

    (CEFAGE – UAlg, University of Algarve, Portugal)

  • João Guerreiro

    (CIEO, University of Algarve, Portu)

  • Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

    (Bank of Portugal and Nova University of Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract

As a consequence of the international financial crisis in 2007, the region of Algarve, where tourism plays an important economic and social role, suffered a decrease in tourism demand, while unemployment increased sharply. Although tourism activities registered a quick recovery, unemployment levels continued to grow. This article examines the impacts of tourism activities on the sectorial structure of the regional economy, using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model. The results reveal that tourism growth did not automatically create the expected positive impacts on the economic performance of the other sectors, as was expressed by the objectives defined in the regional development strategies over the last two decades. The positive impacts of tourism were concentrated in the production of non-tradable goods and the construction sector, leading to a significant reduction of the weight of the tradable sector within the regional economy, similar to a process of deindustrialization described as the ‘Dutch disease’. The decline of construction activities after 2007 has led to a significant increase of regional unemployment, although tourism growth has returned to ‘pre-crisis’ levels, revealing the lack of regional resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • João Romão & João Guerreiro & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2016. "Tourism growth and regional resilience," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 699-714, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:4:p:699-714
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816616654243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354816616654243
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1354816616654243?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chi‐Chur Chao & Bharat R. Hazari & Jean‐Pierre Laffargue & Pasquale M. Sgro & Eden S. H. Yu, 2006. "Tourism, Dutch Disease And Welfare In An Open Dynamic Economy," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 501-515, December.
    2. Álvaro Matias & Peter Nijkamp & Manuela Sarmento (ed.), 2009. "Advances in Tourism Economics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-7908-2124-6, October.
    3. Chi‐Chur Chao & Bharat R. Hazari & Jean‐Pierre Laffargue & Pasquale M. Sgro & Eden S. H. Yu, 2006. "Tourism, Dutch Disease And Welfare In An Open Dynamic Economy," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 501-515, December.
    4. Eveline S. Leeuwen & Peter Nijkamp & Piet Rietveld, 2009. "A Meta-analytic Comparison of Regional Output Multipliers at Different Spatial Levels: Economic Impacts of Tourism," Springer Books, in: Álvaro Matias & Peter Nijkamp & Manuela Sarmento (ed.), Advances in Tourism Economics, chapter 0, pages 13-33, Springer.
    5. Adamos Adamou & Sofronis Clerides, 2010. "Prospects and Limits of Tourism-Led Growth: The International Evidence," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 2(3), pages 287-303, September.
    6. Ron Martin, 2012. "Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, January.
    7. Reggiani, Aura & Nijkamp, Peter & Lanzi, Diego, 2015. "Transport resilience and vulnerability: The role of connectivity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 4-15.
    8. Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth & Ray Spurr, 2003. "Inter-Industry Effects of Tourism Growth: Implications for Destination Managers," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 117-132, June.
    9. Marco Modica & Aura Reggiani, 2015. "Spatial Economic Resilience: Overview and Perspectives," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 211-233, June.
    10. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    11. Andy Pike & Stuart Dawley & John Tomaney, 2010. "Resilience, adaptation and adaptability," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(1), pages 59-70.
    12. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    13. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    14. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    15. Holzner, Mario, 2011. "Tourism and economic development: The beach disease?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 922-933.
    16. Bruno Eeckels & George Filis & Costas Leon, 2012. "Tourism Income and Economic Growth in Greece: Empirical Evidence from Their Cyclical Components," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 817-834, August.
    17. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
    18. Jean-Jacques Nowak & Mondher Sahli & Isabel Cortés-Jiménez, 2007. "Tourism, Capital Good Imports and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence for Spain," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 515-536, December.
    19. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    20. Frank Neffke & Martin Henning & Ron Boschma, 2011. "How Do Regions Diversify over Time? Industry Relatedness and the Development of New Growth Paths in Regions," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 87(3), pages 237-265, July.
    21. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    22. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    23. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2012. "Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Seven Mediterranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 801-816, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giotis Georgios, 2022. "Preliminary Results on the Employment Effect of Tourism. A meta-analysis," Papers 2206.00174, arXiv.org.
    2. Romão, João, 2020. "Tourism, smart specialisation, growth, and resilience," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Blesilda P. Badoc-Gonzales & Ma. Belinda S. Mandigma & Jackson J. Tan, 2022. "SME resilience as a catalyst for tourism destinations: a literature review," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, December.
    4. Kožić, Ivan, 2019. "Can tourism development induce deterioration of human capital?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 168-170.
    5. repec:cfe:wpcefa:2017_01 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Luis Delfim Santos & Ana Catarina Vieira, 2020. "Tourism and regional development: a spatial econometric model for Portugal at municipal level," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 285-299, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Romão, João, 2020. "Tourism, smart specialisation, growth, and resilience," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Jun Zhang & Li Cheng, 2019. "Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Disaster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, P.R. China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Inchausti-Sintes, Federico, 2015. "Tourism: Economic growth, employment and Dutch Disease," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 172-189.
    4. Geng-Nan Chiang & Wei-Ying Sung & Wen-Guu Lei, 2017. "Regime-Switching Effect of Tourism Specialization on Economic Growth in Asia Pacific Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Aura Reggiani, 2022. "The Architecture of Connectivity: A Key to Network Vulnerability, Complexity and Resilience," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 415-437, September.
    6. Sunil Tiwari & Dilek Cil & Arshian Sharif & Cigdem Karis & Ibrahim Cutcu, 2025. "The Relationship between Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Transition Economies: A Comparative Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(3), pages 12392-12420, September.
    7. Philip Watson & Steven Deller, 2022. "Tourism and economic resilience," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1193-1215, August.
    8. Takaaki Takahashi, 2024. "The conflict between residents and tourists: on the variety-shifting effect of tourism growth," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 75(1), pages 121-145, January.
    9. Fabio Mazzola & Pietro Pizzuto & Giovanni Ruggieri, 2022. "Tourism and territorial growth determinants in insular regions: A comparison with mainland regions for some European countries (2008–2019)," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(6), pages 1331-1382, December.
    10. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    11. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.
    12. Ceyhun Can OZCAN & Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2017. "Economic freedom, economic growth and international tourism for post-communist (transition) countries: A panel causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 75-98, Summer.
    13. Naqib Ullah Khan & Wajid Alim & Abida Begum & Heesup Han & Abdullah Mohamed, 2022. "Examining Factors That Influence the International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Nexus with Economic Growth: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, August.
    14. Holzner, Mario, 2011. "Tourism and economic development: The beach disease?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 922-933.
    15. Chou, Ming Che, 2013. "Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 226-232.
    16. Florian Huber & Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2017. "Forecasting Global Equity Indices Using Large Bayesian Vars," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 288-308, July.
    17. Tomasz Woźniak, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(3), pages 365-380, September.
    18. Boris Demeshev & Oxana Malakhovskaya, 2016. "BVAR mapping," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 118-141.
    19. Dahem, Ahlem, 2015. "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 66702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hanck, Christoph & Prüser, Jan, 2016. "House prices and interest rates: Bayesian evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 620, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:4:p:699-714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.