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The Utility of Childhood and Adolescent Obesity Assessment in Relation to Adult Health

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  • Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert
  • Rachel E. Rubinfeld
  • Jay Bhattacharya
  • Thomas N. Robinson
  • Paul H. Wise

Abstract

Background: High childhood obesity prevalence has raised concerns about future adult health, generating calls for obesity screening of young children. Objective: To estimate how well childhood obesity predicts adult obesity and to forecast obesity-related health of future US adults. Design: Longitudinal statistical analyses; microsimulations combining multiple data sets. Data Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, Population Study of Income Dynamics, and National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Surveys. Methods: The authors estimated test characteristics and predictive values of childhood body mass index to identify 2-, 5-, 10-, and 15 year-olds who will become obese adults. The authors constructed models relating childhood body mass index to obesity-related diseases through middle age stratified by sex and race. Results: Twelve percent of 18-year-olds were obese. While screening at age 5 would miss 50% of those who become obese adults, screening at age 15 would miss 9%. The predictive value of obesity screening below age 10 was low even when maternal obesity was included as a predictor. Obesity at age 5 was a substantially worse predictor of health in middle age than was obesity at age 15. For example, the relative risk of developing diabetes as adults for obese white male 15-year-olds was 4.5 versus otherwise similar nonobese 15-year-olds. For obese 5-year-olds, the relative risk was 1.6. Limitation: Main results do not include Hispanics due to sample size. Past relationships between childhood and adult obesity and health may change in the future. Conclusion: Early childhood obesity assessment adds limited information to later childhood assessment. Targeted later childhood approaches or universal strategies to prevent unhealthy weight gain should be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert & Rachel E. Rubinfeld & Jay Bhattacharya & Thomas N. Robinson & Paul H. Wise, 2013. "The Utility of Childhood and Adolescent Obesity Assessment in Relation to Adult Health," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 33(2), pages 163-175, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:33:y:2013:i:2:p:163-175
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X12447240
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Youth, 2005. "Preventing Childhood Obesity Health in the Balance," Mathematica Policy Research Reports ce206c664e4e4d95a510b0692, Mathematica Policy Research.
    2. Committee on Prevention of Obesity in Children & Youth of which Robert C. Whitaker is a member, "undated". "Preventing Childhood Obesity: Health in the Balance," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 655b9b55a39f4db1a879cc8bb, Mathematica Policy Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maruyama, Shiko & Nakamura, Sayaka, 2015. "The decline in BMI among Japanese women after World War II," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 125-138.

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