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Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Karreth

    (Department of Politics and International Relations, Ursinus College)

  • Jaroslav Tir

    (Department of Political Science, University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Jason Quinn

    (Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame)

  • Madhav Joshi

    (Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame)

Abstract

Recent research shows that comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are effective in ending civil wars and improving post-conflict conditions, but CPAs emerge in only a fraction of civil wars. This study provides systematic evidence about the origins of CPAs and the role of international actors in facilitating their signing. We argue that mediation is more likely to be successful and that CPAs are more likely to emerge in those civil war countries that are members in a higher number of IGOs with high economic leverage. Using their financial and institutional leverage, these IGOs can help the combatants overcome the credible commitment problems associated with entering into mediation, and with making sufficient concessions and compromises to reach and sign a CPA. Analyzing all intrastate armed conflicts from 1989 to 2011, we find that a conflict country’s memberships in IGOs with high economic leverage increase the odds of (1) mediation occurring and (2) mediation subsequently leading to the signing of CPAs. This finding is robust to common sources of spurious relationships between international institutions and the behavior of conflict parties. Participating in IGOs with high economic leverage carries important positive consequences for civil war management and enhances the impact of mediation on getting conflict parties to sign CPAs.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Karreth & Jaroslav Tir & Jason Quinn & Madhav Joshi, 2025. "Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(2), pages 433-447, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:62:y:2025:i:2:p:433-447
    DOI: 10.1177/00223433231211766
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johannes Karreth, 2018. "The Economic Leverage of International Organizations in Interstate Disputes," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 463-490, May.
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    10. Johannes Karreth & Jason Quinn & Madhav Joshi & Jaroslav Tir, 2023. "International Third Parties and the Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements After Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(2-3), pages 494-521, February.
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