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Agreement without Peace? International Mediation and Time Inconsistency Problems

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  • Kyle Beardsley

Abstract

Mediation has competing short‐ and long‐term effects. In the short run, the actors are better able to identify and settle on a mutually satisfying outcome. In the long run, mediation can create artificial incentives that, as the mediator's influence wanes and the combatants' demands change, leave the actors with an agreement less durable than one that would have been achieved without mediation. This article tests the observable implications from this logic using a set of international crises from 1918 to 2001. The results reconcile findings in the previous literature that inconsistently portray the effectiveness of mediation.

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  • Kyle Beardsley, 2008. "Agreement without Peace? International Mediation and Time Inconsistency Problems," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 723-740, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:52:y:2008:i:4:p:723-740
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00339.x
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    Cited by:

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    4. Renato Corbetta & Molly M. Melin, 2018. "Exploring the Threshold between Conflict Management and Joining in Biased Interventions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(10), pages 2205-2231, November.
    5. Wakako Maekawa & Barış Arı & Theodora-Ismene Gizelis, 2019. "UN involvement and civil war peace agreement implementation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 397-416, March.
    6. Nomikos, William George, 2021. "Peacekeeping and the Enforcement of Intergroup Cooperation: Evidence from Mali," SocArXiv 36j8q, Center for Open Science.
    7. Nomikos, William George, 2021. "Unintended Consequences: Reconsidering the Effects of UN Peacekeeping on State-sponsored Violence," OSF Preprints 8h6fs, Center for Open Science.
    8. Marius Mehrl & Tobias Böhmelt, 2021. "How mediator leadership transitions influence mediation effectiveness," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 45-62, January.
    9. Kyle Beardsley, 2013. "The UN at the peacemaking–peacebuilding nexus," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 369-386, September.
    10. Luis Alfonso Dau & Randall Morck & Bernard Yin Yeung, 2021. "Business groups and the study of international business: A Coasean synthesis and extension," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(2), pages 161-211, March.
    11. Tobias Böhmelt, 2010. "The Impact of Trade on International Mediation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(4), pages 566-592, August.
    12. Lindsey Doyle & Lukas Hegele, 2021. "Talks before the talks: Effects of pre-negotiation on reaching peace agreements in intrastate armed conflicts, 2005–15," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(2), pages 231-247, March.
    13. Hosli Madeleine O. & Hoekstra Anke, 2013. "What Fosters Enduring Peace? An Analysis of Factors Influencing Civil War Resolution," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 123-155, August.
    14. Vanessa A. Lefler, 2015. "Strategic forum selection and compliance in interstate dispute resolution," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 76-98, February.
    15. William G Nomikos, 2021. "Why share? An analysis of the sources of post-conflict power-sharing," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(2), pages 248-262, March.
    16. Tobias Böhmelt, 2015. "The spatial contagion of international mediation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 108-127, February.
    17. Duursma, Allard, 2017. "Data synthesis paper, July 2017," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100163, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Thomas Zeitzoff, 2018. "Does Social Media Influence Conflict? Evidence from the 2012 Gaza Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(1), pages 29-63, January.
    19. David Quinn & Jonathan Wilkenfeld & Pelin Eralp & Victor Asal & Theodore Mclauchlin, 2013. "Crisis managers but not conflict resolvers: Mediating ethnic intrastate conflict in Africa," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 387-406, September.
    20. Govinda Clayton & Han Dorussen, 2022. "The effectiveness of mediation and peacekeeping for ending conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 150-165, March.
    21. Evgeniia Iakhnis & Patrick James, 2021. "Near crises in world politics: A new dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(2), pages 224-243, March.
    22. Constantin Ruhe, 2021. "Impeding fatal violence through third-party diplomacy: The effect of mediation on conflict intensity," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(4), pages 687-701, July.
    23. Max Blouin, 2018. "Peacekeeping: A strategic approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(1), pages 41-63, February.
    24. Tobias Böhmelt, 2013. "Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 199-219, July.

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