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Softening Up: Making Conflicts More Amenable to Diplomacy

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  • J. Michael Greig
  • Paul F. Diehl

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the process by which initially reluctant protagonists come to accept diplomacy to resolve their conflicts; we refer to this as “softening up.” Although some studies exploring mediation and negotiation initiation have identified a number of important factors, they have produced largely modest results. These modest findings may reflect the fact that the conditions that promote diplomacy do so only after disputants have been softened up, thereby producing results that are statistically significant, but not substantively strong, unless one controls for a softening effect. In this paper, we develop and test a model of softening up. We do so by studying all pairs of rival states in the period 1946--1995.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Michael Greig & Paul F. Diehl, 2006. "Softening Up: Making Conflicts More Amenable to Diplomacy," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 355-384, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:32:y:2006:i:4:p:355-384
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620601011032
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyle Beardsley, 2008. "Agreement without Peace? International Mediation and Time Inconsistency Problems," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 723-740, October.
    2. Pavlína Bláhová, 2019. "Nagorno-Karabakh: obstacles to the resolution of the frozen conflict," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 69-85, March.
    3. Govinda Clayton & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2014. "Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(3), pages 265-284, July.
    4. Renato Corbetta & Molly M. Melin, 2018. "Exploring the Threshold between Conflict Management and Joining in Biased Interventions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(10), pages 2205-2231, November.
    5. Andrew P. Owsiak, 2015. "Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 50-75, February.
    6. Molly M. Melin & Scott Sigmund Gartner & Jacob Bercovitch, 2013. "Fear of rejection: The puzzle of unaccepted mediation offers in international conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 354-368, September.
    7. Marius Mehrl & Tobias Böhmelt, 2021. "How mediator leadership transitions influence mediation effectiveness," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 45-62, January.
    8. Tobias Böhmelt, 2010. "The Impact of Trade on International Mediation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(4), pages 566-592, August.
    9. Yoram Z. Haftel & Stephanie C. Hofmann, 2019. "Rivalry and Overlap: Why Regional Economic Organizations Encroach on Security Organizations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(9), pages 2180-2206, October.
    10. Tobias Böhmelt, 2015. "The spatial contagion of international mediation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 108-127, February.
    11. Zeev Maoz & Randolph M. Siverson, 2008. "Bargaining, Domestic Politics, and International Context in the Management of War: A Review Essay," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(2), pages 171-189, April.
    12. Kyle Beardsley & J. Michael Greig, 2009. "Disaggregating the Incentives of Conflict Management: An Introduction," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 243-248, August.
    13. Sinem Cengiz, 2020. "Assessing the Astana Peace Process for Syria: Actors, Approaches, and Differences," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 7(2), pages 200-214, June.
    14. Jon CW Pevehouse & Timothy Nordstrom & Roseanne W McManus & Anne Spencer Jamison, 2020. "Tracking organizations in the world: The Correlates of War IGO Version 3.0 datasets," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 492-503, May.
    15. Shawn L. Ramirez, 2018. "Mediation in the shadow of an audience: How third parties use secrecy and agenda-setting to broker settlements," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 30(1), pages 119-146, January.
    16. Tobias Böhmelt, 2013. "Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 199-219, July.

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