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Historians, Social Scientists, and Crisis Management

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  • Ole R. Holsti

    (Department of Political Science Duke University)

Abstract

Because diplomatic historians Gilbert and Lauren are enthusiastic and effective exponents of interdisciplinary collaboration, it is fitting that they should assess the current state of theory on international crises. This essay evaluates four major charges in their critique: conceptual confusion, theoretical difficulties, prescriptive inadequacies, and historical insensitivity. The essay supports their premise that communication and collaboration between diplomatic historians and social scientists are essential if we are to develop empirical, policy-relevant theories of crisis. But it concludes that their interesting essay is flawed in two respects. Gilbert and Lauren aim a rather poorly calibrated shotgun at a large and diverse literature, whereas the situation would appear to call for carefully aimed rifle shots; thus, some of their shots hit the mark, but many others fly rather wide of the target. They have also missed an excellent opportunity to instruct us in ways that crisis research might be improved.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole R. Holsti, 1980. "Historians, Social Scientists, and Crisis Management," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(4), pages 665-682, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:24:y:1980:i:4:p:665-682
    DOI: 10.1177/002200278002400406
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allison, Graham T., 1969. "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 689-718, November.
    2. Alan Alexandroff & Richard Rosecrance & Arthur Stein, 1977. "History, Quantitative Analysis, and the Balance of Power," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(1), pages 35-56, March.
    3. Allison, Graham T., 1969. "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 689-718, September.
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