Population Growth and Economic Development: Theoretical Arguments and Empirical Findings— A Survey of Literature

The relationship between population growth and economic development has remained a controversial topic since the time of Malthus. Opinion among the scholars on this issue is sharply divided. This article examines the theoretical arguments about the likely consequences—positive or negative—of higher population growth on economic development and looks at the empirical findings on the issue based on the survey of literature in the field. The article traces the historical profile of demographic change in the developed and the developing countries over the last two centuries and analyses the factors behind them with particular reference to China and India. The implications of the findings for population control policy are also examined. There is a growing realisation of the fact that fertility decline is dependent upon socio-economic development. There is a general consensus among demographers that policies for fertility reduction should stress voluntary decisions on the part of the individuals concerned rather than compulsion and should be conceived in the context of a much wider programme for social, economic, and political development. The positive and negative incentives in this situation have a limited role to play in this context.