IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/globus/v26y2025i6p1734-1752.html

Do Market Conditions Affect the Tracking Efficiency of Exchange-traded Funds? Evidence from Developed and Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Augusto Ferreira da Costa Neto
  • Marcelo Cabús Klötzle
  • Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto

Abstract

This study examines the tracking efficiency of a sample of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from seven different emerging and developed markets, in bullish and bearish market conditions, using the data from daily closing prices. It seeks to address two major questions. First, do ETFs from both developed and emerging markets have the same behaviour regarding tracking their underlying indexes? Second, is ETFs tracking ability affected by events that could change market conditions from a bullish to a bearish pattern, and vice-versa? Our findings suggest that tracking error appears to be higher in emerging markets when compared to developed markets. Furthermore, tracking error was found to be relatively higher in bearish conditions for developed markets, while this was quite the opposite in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Augusto Ferreira da Costa Neto & Marcelo Cabús Klötzle & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2025. "Do Market Conditions Affect the Tracking Efficiency of Exchange-traded Funds? Evidence from Developed and Emerging Markets," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 26(6), pages 1734-1752, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:26:y:2025:i:6:p:1734-1752
    DOI: 10.1177/09721509211036798
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09721509211036798
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09721509211036798?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kent T. Saunders, 2018. "Analysis of International ETF Tracking Error in Country-Specific Funds," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 151-160, June.
    2. Aigbe Akhigbe & Bhanu Balasubramnian & Melinda Newman, 2020. "Exchange Traded Funds and the likelihood of closure," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(3/4), pages 105-127, June.
    3. Rakowski, David & Shirley, Sara, 2020. "What drives the market for exchange-traded notes?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Jun Chen & Yi Chen & Bart Frijns, 2017. "Evaluating the tracking performance and tracking error of New Zealand exchange traded funds," Pacific Accounting Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 443-462, August.
    5. Wiggins, James B, 1992. "Betas in Up and Down Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 107-123, February.
    6. Gruber, Martin J, 1996. "Another Puzzle: The Growth in Activity Managed Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 783-810, July.
    7. Augusto Ferreira da Costa Neto & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2019. "Investor behavior in ETF markets: a comparative study between the US and emerging markets," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(5), pages 944-966, August.
    8. repec:eme:par000:par-10-2016-0089 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Fabozzi, Frank J & Francis, Jack Clark, 1977. "Stability Tests for Alphas and Betas over Bull and Bear Market Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1093-1099, September.
    10. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Louis R. Piccotti, 2018. "ETF Premiums and Liquidity Segmentation," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 117-152, February.
    12. Howton, Shelly W & Peterson, David R, 1998. "An Examination of Cross-Sectional Realized Stock Returns Using a Varying-Risk Beta Model," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 199-212, August.
    13. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
    14. Jack W Aber & Dan Li & Luc Can, 2009. "Price volatility and tracking ability of ETFs," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(4), pages 210-221, October.
    15. George Woodward & Heather Anderson, 2009. "Does beta react to market conditions? Estimates of 'bull' and 'bear' betas using a nonlinear market model with an endogenous threshold parameter," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 913-924.
    16. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    17. Fabozzi, Frank J & Francis, Jack C, 1979. "Mutual Fund Systematic Risk for Bull and Bear Markets: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(5), pages 1243-1250, December.
    18. repec:eme:mfppss:v:42:y:2016:i:5:p:417-437 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Blitz, David & Huij, Joop, 2012. "Evaluating the performance of global emerging markets equity exchange-traded funds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 149-158.
    20. Karen Wong & Wai Cheong Shum, 2010. "Exchange-traded funds in bullish and bearish markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1615-1624.
    21. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    22. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    23. Charupat, Narat & Miu, Peter, 2011. "The pricing and performance of leveraged exchange-traded funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 966-977, April.
    24. Mathew Mallika & M. M. Sulphey, 2018. "Gold Exchange Traded Fund - Price Discovery and Performance Analysis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 65(4), pages 477-495, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prabhdeep Kaur & Jaspal Singh & Sidharath Seth, 2021. "Investigating the Dynamics of Exchange Traded Funds Across the Bear and Bull Markets: Evidence from Indian Equity ETFs," Vision, , vol. 25(3), pages 350-360, September.
    2. George Woodward & Heather Anderson, 2009. "Does beta react to market conditions? Estimates of 'bull' and 'bear' betas using a nonlinear market model with an endogenous threshold parameter," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 913-924.
    3. Woodward, George & Marisetty, Vijaya B., 2005. "Introducing non-linear dynamics to the two-regime market model: Evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 559-581, September.
    4. Damien Kunjal & Faeezah Peerbhai & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2021. "The performance of South African exchange traded funds under changing market conditions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 350-359, September.
    5. Zegadło, Piotr, 2022. "Identifying bull and bear market regimes with a robust rule-based method," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Kokoszka Piotr & Miao Hong & Zheng Ben, 2017. "Testing for asymmetry in betas of cumulative returns: Impact of the financial crisis and crude oil price," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1-2), pages 33-53, June.
    7. Ntantamis, Christos & Zhou, Jun, 2015. "Bull and bear markets in commodity prices and commodity stocks: Is there a relation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 61-81.
    8. Fredj Jawadi & Wael Louhichi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou & Hachmi Ben Ameur, 2019. "Modeling time-varying beta in a sustainable stock market with a three-regime threshold GARCH model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 275-295, October.
    9. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2014. "The persistence and asymmetric volatility in the Nigerian stock bull and bear markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 463-469.
    10. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
    11. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2010. "Systematic risks for the financial and for the non-financial Romanian companies," MPRA Paper 41636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Feb 2010.
    12. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
    14. Ahmed, Jameel, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Price Stability and Financial Stability – The Nexus for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 127622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Les fonds de pension protègent-ils les investisseurs des évolutions du marché?," Working Papers CREGO 1060101, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
    16. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    17. Virginie Coudert & Hélène Raymond-Feingold, 2011. "Gold and financial assets: Are there any safe havens in bear markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1613-1622.
    18. Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka & Terrones, Marco E., 2020. "Global Recessions," MPRA Paper 98608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Beatrice Boumda & Darren Duxbury & Cristina Ortiz & Luis Vicente, 2021. "Do Socially Responsible Investment Funds Sell Losses and Ride Gains? The Disposition Effect in SRI Funds," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-14, July.
    20. Konstantin A., Kholodilin, 2003. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turns of the Japanese Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:26:y:2025:i:6:p:1734-1752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.imi.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.